MLB Picks for August 1: The Model Went 11-4
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on August 1. The model went 11-4 on the day. Season to date through August 1: 362-303 (54.4%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at ATL | ATL | 61% | 58% | 62% | ATL 8-3 | Hit |
| AZ at CLE | CLE | 60% | 53% | 62% | AZ 12-8 | Miss |
| MIN at SEA | SEA | 60% | 57% | 60% | SEA 4-3 | Hit |
| CWS at TB | TB | 60% | 55% | 60% | TB 1-0 | Hit |
| BOS at LAD | LAD | 59% | 54% | 60% | BOS 3-2 | Miss |
| STL at TOR | TOR | 57% | 55% | 58% | TOR 5-1 | Hit |
| PHI at BAL | PHI | 57% | 55% | 57% | PHI 5-0 | Hit |
| SF at SD | SD | 57% | 53% | 57% | SD 6-5 | Hit |
| DET at ATH | DET | 56% | 50.2% | 57% | DET 8-6 | Hit |
| MIA at NYM | NYM | 55% | 55% | 55% | MIA 6-2 | Miss |
| MIL at LAA | MIL | 54% | 64% | 52% | MIL 3-1 | Hit |
| TEX at HOU | TEX | 54% | 52% | 54% | HOU 5-4 | Miss |
| PIT at CIN | PIT | 53% | 55% | 52% | PIT 4-1 | Hit |
| KC at COL | COL | 51% | 47% | 52% | COL 12-6 | Hit |
| NYY at CHC | CHC | 50.1% | 50.2% | 50.1% | CHC 5-2 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
KC at COL: the model took KC (53%), the market COL; the served pick was COL and the pick hit. MIL over LAA: model 64%, market 52%, an 11-point gap; the pick hit. CLE over AZ: model 53%, market 62%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed. DET over ATH: model 50.2%, market 57%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over BOS: model 54%, market 60%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. TB over CWS: model 55%, market 60%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: ATL 61% over WSH (hit), CLE 60% over AZ (miss), SEA 60% over MIN (hit).
Season to date
Through August 1: 362-303 (54.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 35-22.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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