MLB Picks for July 31: The Model Went 7-8
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on July 31. The model went 7-8 on the day. Season to date through July 31: 351-299 (54.0%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL at LAA | MIL | 63% | 80% | 60% | MIL 6-2 | Hit |
| STL at TOR | TOR | 62% | 56% | 63% | TOR 3-1 | Hit |
| MIN at SEA | SEA | 61% | 58% | 61% | MIN 5-3 | Miss |
| NYY at CHC | CHC | 58% | 55% | 59% | NYY 2-0 | Miss |
| SF at SD | SD | 57% | 60% | 57% | SD 7-0 | Hit |
| AZ at CLE | CLE | 57% | 56% | 57% | AZ 4-1 | Miss |
| CWS at TB | TB | 56% | 56% | 56% | CWS 6-1 | Miss |
| DET at ATH | DET | 55% | 48% | 56% | DET 13-1 | Hit |
| MIA at NYM | NYM | 54% | 53% | 54% | MIA 5-2 | Miss |
| BOS at LAD | LAD | 54% | 54% | 54% | BOS 9-4 | Miss |
| TEX at HOU | HOU | 54% | 49.9% | 54% | HOU 11-2 | Hit |
| PIT at CIN | PIT | 53% | 52% | 53% | CIN 8-7 | Miss |
| WSH at ATL | ATL | 52% | 55% | 52% | ATL 6-2 | Hit |
| KC at COL | KC | 52% | 62% | 50.2% | COL 3-1 | Miss |
| PHI at BAL | BAL | 52% | 52% | 51% | BAL 6-4 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
DET at ATH: the model took ATH (52%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick hit. TEX at HOU: the model took TEX (50.1%), the market HOU; the served pick was HOU and the pick hit. MIL over LAA: model 80%, market 60%, a 20-point gap; the pick hit. KC over COL: model 62%, market 50.2%, a 12-point gap; the pick missed. TOR over STL: model 56%, market 63%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 63% over LAA (hit), TOR 62% over STL (hit), SEA 61% over MIN (miss).
Season to date
Through July 31: 351-299 (54.0%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 34-21.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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