MLB Picks for July 30: The Model Went 7-3
By Verdexed Analytics
10 MLB games on July 30. The model went 7-3 on the day. Season to date through July 30: 344-291 (54.2%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at ATH | BOS | 63% | 72% | 62% | BOS 5-4 | Hit |
| SF at SD | SD | 58% | 56% | 58% | SF 4-1 | Miss |
| SEA at LAD | LAD | 58% | 52% | 59% | LAD 6-2 | Hit |
| WSH at ATL | ATL | 58% | 56% | 58% | ATL 5-4 | Hit |
| TEX at TB | TB | 56% | 54% | 57% | TB 3-2 | Hit |
| KC at MIN | MIN | 56% | 53% | 56% | MIN 4-3 | Hit |
| MIA at NYM | NYM | 54% | 53% | 54% | NYM 4-2 | Hit |
| NYY at CWS | CWS | 51% | 52% | 51% | CWS 2-1 | Hit |
| PIT at CIN | PIT | 51% | 47% | 51% | CIN 3-2 | Miss |
| CHC at STL | STL | 51% | 47% | 51% | CHC 4-2 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
PIT at CIN: the model took CIN (53%), the market PIT; the served pick was PIT and the pick missed. CHC at STL: the model took CHC (53%), the market STL; the served pick was STL and the pick missed. BOS over ATH: model 72%, market 62%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over SEA: model 52%, market 59%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: BOS 63% over ATH (hit), SD 58% over SF (miss), LAD 58% over SEA (hit).
Season to date
Through July 30: 344-291 (54.2%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 32-20.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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