MLB Picks for July 29: The Model Went 8-8
By Verdexed Analytics
16 MLB games on July 29. The model went 8-8 on the day. Season to date through July 29: 337-288 (53.9%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC at MIN | MIN | 62% | 56% | 64% | KC 4-0 | Miss |
| PHI at MIA | PHI | 62% | 65% | 61% | MIA 8-6 | Miss |
| ATL at NYM | ATL | 61% | 70% | 58% | NYM 3-2 | Miss |
| ATL at NYM | ATL | 61% | 70% | 58% | ATL 1-0 | Hit |
| BAL at DET | DET | 61% | 57% | 62% | BAL 10-9 | Miss |
| BOS at ATH | BOS | 60% | 68% | 58% | BOS 4-2 | Hit |
| COL at SD | SD | 59% | 59% | 59% | SD 3-1 | Hit |
| NYY at CWS | NYY | 59% | 64% | 57% | CWS 6-5 | Miss |
| SEA at LAD | LAD | 59% | 54% | 60% | LAD 4-2 | Hit |
| MIL at SF | MIL | 56% | 65% | 53% | SF 16-3 | Miss |
| HOU at LAA | HOU | 55% | 55% | 55% | HOU 7-4 | Hit |
| AZ at PIT | PIT | 54% | 53% | 55% | AZ 3-0 | Miss |
| TEX at TB | TB | 54% | 45% | 57% | TB 3-0 | Hit |
| CLE at CIN | CLE | 54% | 49% | 56% | CLE 6-1 | Hit |
| TOR at WSH | TOR | 53% | 55% | 52% | TOR 5-2 | Hit |
| CHC at STL | CHC | 51% | 53% | 50.1% | STL 3-2 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
TEX at TB: the model took TEX (55%), the market TB; the served pick was TB and the pick hit. CLE at CIN: the model took CIN (51%), the market CLE; the served pick was CLE and the pick hit. ATL over NYM: model 70%, market 58%, a 12-point gap; the pick missed. ATL over NYM: model 70%, market 58%, a 12-point gap; the pick hit. MIL over SF: model 65%, market 53%, a 12-point gap; the pick missed. BOS over ATH: model 68%, market 58%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIN 62% over KC (miss), PHI 62% over MIA (miss), ATL 61% over NYM (miss).
Season to date
Through July 29: 337-288 (53.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 31-20.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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