MLB Picks for July 28: The Model Went 10-5
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on July 28. The model went 10-5 on the day. Season to date through July 28: 329-280 (54.0%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at SD | SD | 66% | 68% | 65% | SD 8-7 | Hit |
| SEA at LAD | LAD | 63% | 54% | 63% | SEA 7-6 | Miss |
| TEX at TB | TB | 61% | 53% | 62% | TEX 4-1 | Miss |
| KC at MIN | MIN | 59% | 55% | 59% | MIN 3-2 | Hit |
| MIL at SF | MIL | 59% | 71% | 58% | MIL 8-2 | Hit |
| BOS at ATH | BOS | 58% | 57% | 58% | ATH 4-3 | Miss |
| BAL at DET | DET | 57% | 53% | 57% | DET 14-0 | Hit |
| TOR at WSH | WSH | 56% | 55% | 56% | WSH 8-6 | Hit |
| NYY at CWS | NYY | 55% | 71% | 54% | NYY 3-2 | Hit |
| CLE at CIN | CLE | 53% | 44% | 54% | CLE 6-5 | Hit |
| CLE at CIN | CLE | 53% | 44% | 54% | CIN 2-0 | Miss |
| CHC at STL | CHC | 52% | 56% | 51% | CHC 10-2 | Hit |
| AZ at PIT | PIT | 51% | 46% | 51% | AZ 8-7 | Miss |
| PHI at MIA | MIA | 51% | 45% | 51% | MIA 1-0 | Hit |
| HOU at LAA | HOU | 50.2% | 49% | 50.2% | HOU 3-2 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
CLE at CIN: the model took CIN (56%), the market CLE; the served pick was CLE and the pick hit. CLE at CIN: the model took CIN (56%), the market CLE; the served pick was CLE and the pick missed. PHI at MIA: the model took PHI (55%), the market MIA; the served pick was MIA and the pick hit. AZ at PIT: the model took AZ (54%), the market PIT; the served pick was PIT and the pick missed. HOU at LAA: the model took LAA (51%), the market HOU; the served pick was HOU and the pick hit. NYY over CWS: model 71%, market 54%, a 17-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: SD 66% over COL (hit), LAD 63% over SEA (miss), TB 61% over TEX (miss).
Season to date
Through July 28: 329-280 (54.0%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 29-16.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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