MLB Picks for July 27: The Model Went 5-6
By Verdexed Analytics
11 MLB games on July 27. The model went 5-6 on the day. Season to date through July 27: 319-275 (53.7%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at MIA | PHI | 63% | 68% | 63% | MIA 8-7 | Miss |
| BOS at ATH | BOS | 61% | 57% | 61% | BOS 4-2 | Hit |
| NYY at CWS | NYY | 57% | 54% | 57% | NYY 9-5 | Hit |
| MIL at SF | MIL | 56% | 57% | 56% | SF 3-0 | Miss |
| SEA at TEX | SEA | 55% | 48% | 55% | TEX 7-3 | Miss |
| TOR at WSH | WSH | 53% | 56% | 53% | TOR 3-2 | Miss |
| CHC at STL | CHC | 53% | 53% | 53% | CHC 7-3 | Hit |
| AZ at PIT | PIT | 52% | 52% | 52% | PIT 3-2 | Hit |
| BAL at DET | DET | 51% | 48% | 52% | BAL 8-5 | Miss |
| HOU at LAA | HOU | 51% | 57% | 51% | HOU 6-4 | Hit |
| ATL at NYM | ATL | 50.2% | 52% | 50.1% | NYM 14-3 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
SEA at TEX: the model took TEX (52%), the market SEA; the served pick was SEA and the pick missed. BAL at DET: the model took BAL (52%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick missed. HOU over LAA: model 57%, market 51%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. PHI over MIA: model 68%, market 63%, a 5-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: PHI 63% over MIA (miss), BOS 61% over ATH (hit), NYY 57% over CWS (hit).
Season to date
Through July 27: 319-275 (53.7%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 28-14.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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