MLB Picks for July 26: The Model Went 8-7
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on July 26. The model went 8-7 on the day. Season to date through July 26: 314-269 (53.9%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at MIL | MIL | 75% | 70% | 75% | MIL 11-2 | Hit |
| NYY at PHI | PHI | 63% | 57% | 63% | PHI 11-4 | Hit |
| KC at DET | DET | 63% | 54% | 63% | KC 5-4 | Miss |
| LAD at NYM | LAD | 59% | 53% | 59% | NYM 8-3 | Miss |
| ATH at MIN | MIN | 59% | 55% | 59% | MIN 11-8 | Hit |
| CLE at TB | TB | 56% | 54% | 56% | TB 1-0 | Hit |
| TOR at BOS | BOS | 56% | 56% | 56% | BOS 6-1 | Hit |
| CIN at STL | STL | 55% | 54% | 55% | CIN 5-3 | Miss |
| CHC at PIT | PIT | 54% | 55% | 54% | PIT 8-7 | Hit |
| SD at MIA | MIA | 54% | 53% | 54% | SD 5-3 | Miss |
| AZ at WSH | AZ | 51% | 52% | 51% | WSH 10-7 | Miss |
| ATL at BAL | ATL | 51% | 56% | 50.2% | ATL 3-2 | Hit |
| SEA at TEX | TEX | 50.5% | 55% | 50.2% | SEA 6-4 | Miss |
| HOU at CWS | HOU | 50.1% | 56% | 49.8% | CWS 12-3 | Miss |
| LAA at SF | LAA | 50.0% | 54% | 49.8% | LAA 4-3 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
HOU at CWS: the model took HOU (56%), the market CWS; the served pick was HOU and the pick missed. LAA at SF: the model took LAA (54%), the market SF; the served pick was LAA and the pick hit. DET over KC: model 54%, market 63%, a 9-point gap; the pick missed. PHI over NYY: model 57%, market 63%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over NYM: model 53%, market 59%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. ATL over BAL: model 56%, market 50.2%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 75% over COL (hit), PHI 63% over NYY (hit), DET 63% over KC (miss).
Season to date
Through July 26: 314-269 (53.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 27-13.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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