MLB Picks for July 25: The Model Went 9-6
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on July 25. The model went 9-6 on the day. Season to date through July 25: 306-262 (53.9%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at MIL | MIL | 67% | 59% | 67% | MIL 8-5 | Hit |
| LAD at NYM | LAD | 60% | 52% | 60% | LAD 4-3 | Hit |
| ATH at MIN | MIN | 58% | 53% | 59% | MIN 2-0 | Hit |
| KC at DET | DET | 58% | 54% | 59% | KC 3-2 | Miss |
| AZ at WSH | WSH | 56% | 53% | 57% | WSH 5-3 | Hit |
| SD at MIA | MIA | 56% | 55% | 56% | SD 7-2 | Miss |
| LAA at SF | SF | 54% | 55% | 54% | SF 9-2 | Hit |
| HOU at CWS | CWS | 53% | 53% | 54% | HOU 4-1 | Miss |
| NYY at PHI | NYY | 53% | 47% | 54% | NYY 3-1 | Hit |
| CLE at TB | TB | 53% | 54% | 53% | TB 3-0 | Hit |
| CHC at PIT | PIT | 53% | 56% | 53% | CHC 11-0 | Miss |
| ATL at BAL | BAL | 51% | 49.6% | 51% | BAL 3-2 | Hit |
| SEA at TEX | SEA | 51% | 47% | 51% | TEX 7-1 | Miss |
| TOR at BOS | BOS | 51% | 55% | 50.1% | TOR 6-0 | Miss |
| CIN at STL | STL | 51% | 48% | 51% | STL 7-0 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
NYY at PHI: the model took PHI (53%), the market NYY; the served pick was NYY and the pick hit. SEA at TEX: the model took TEX (53%), the market SEA; the served pick was SEA and the pick missed. CIN at STL: the model took CIN (52%), the market STL; the served pick was STL and the pick hit. ATL at BAL: the model took ATL (50.4%), the market BAL; the served pick was BAL and the pick hit. LAD over NYM: model 52%, market 60%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. MIL over COL: model 59%, market 67%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 67% over COL (hit), LAD 60% over NYM (hit), MIN 58% over ATH (hit).
Season to date
Through July 25: 306-262 (53.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 25-12.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.