MLB Picks for July 24: The Model Went 6-9
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on July 24. The model went 6-9 on the day. Season to date through July 24: 297-256 (53.7%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at MIL | MIL | 71% | 78% | 71% | COL 5-2 | Miss |
| KC at DET | DET | 70% | 57% | 71% | DET 2-1 | Hit |
| LAA at SF | SF | 59% | 54% | 60% | SF 7-6 | Hit |
| CIN at STL | STL | 58% | 51% | 58% | CIN 4-2 | Miss |
| ATH at MIN | MIN | 56% | 52% | 57% | ATH 2-0 | Miss |
| NYY at PHI | PHI | 55% | 52% | 56% | NYY 1-0 | Miss |
| SD at MIA | MIA | 55% | 51% | 55% | SD 4-2 | Miss |
| HOU at CWS | CWS | 55% | 52% | 55% | HOU 9-5 | Miss |
| LAD at NYM | LAD | 55% | 49% | 55% | LAD 4-2 | Hit |
| CLE at TB | TB | 55% | 53% | 55% | TB 11-3 | Hit |
| AZ at WSH | AZ | 54% | 62% | 54% | AZ 3-2 | Hit |
| TOR at BOS | BOS | 54% | 54% | 54% | BOS 6-4 | Hit |
| ATL at BAL | BAL | 52% | 49% | 52% | ATL 7-6 | Miss |
| CHC at PIT | PIT | 51% | 50.4% | 51% | CHC 3-2 | Miss |
| SEA at TEX | SEA | 51% | 49% | 51% | TEX 5-4 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
LAD at NYM: the model took NYM (51%), the market LAD; the served pick was LAD and the pick hit. ATL at BAL: the model took ATL (51%), the market BAL; the served pick was BAL and the pick missed. SEA at TEX: the model took TEX (51%), the market SEA; the served pick was SEA and the pick missed. DET over KC: model 57%, market 71%, a 14-point gap; the pick hit. AZ over WSH: model 62%, market 54%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. MIL over COL: model 78%, market 71%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 71% over COL (miss), DET 70% over KC (hit), SF 59% over LAA (hit).
Season to date
Through July 24: 297-256 (53.7%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 24-12.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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