MLB Picks for July 23: The Model Went 2-2
By Verdexed Analytics
5 MLB games on July 23. The model went 2-2 on the day and 1 still pending. Season to date through July 23: 291-247 (54.1%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD at ATL | ATL | 67% | 60% | 68% | ATL 6-5 | Hit |
| KC at DET | DET | 65% | 53% | 66% | DET 4-3 | Hit |
| MIN at CLE | CLE | 57% | 54% | 57% | MIN 3-1 | Miss |
| AZ at STL | STL | 52% | 51% | 53% | PPD 10-6 | Pending |
| TB at TOR | TB | 50.0% | 46% | 51% | TOR 3-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
TB at TOR: the model took TOR (54%), the market TB; the served pick was TB and the pick missed. DET over KC: model 53%, market 66%, a 14-point gap; the pick hit. ATL over SD: model 60%, market 68%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: ATL 67% over SD (hit), DET 65% over KC (hit), CLE 57% over MIN (miss).
Season to date
Through July 23: 291-247 (54.1%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 23-11.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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