MLB Picks for July 22: The Model Went 8-9
By Verdexed Analytics
17 MLB games on July 22. The model went 8-9 on the day. Season to date through July 22: 289-245 (54.1%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at NYY | NYY | 60% | 56% | 61% | NYY 2-0 | Hit |
| PIT at NYY | NYY | 60% | 56% | 61% | PIT 5-3 | Miss |
| BAL at BOS | BOS | 59% | 54% | 59% | BOS 6-3 | Hit |
| BAL at BOS | BOS | 59% | 54% | 59% | BAL 5-1 | Miss |
| CIN at SEA | SEA | 58% | 52% | 59% | CIN 5-3 | Miss |
| NYM at MIL | MIL | 57% | 60% | 56% | MIL 4-3 | Hit |
| WSH at COL | WSH | 56% | 51% | 56% | WSH 8-0 | Hit |
| STL at LAA | LAA | 55% | 51% | 55% | STL 1-0 | Miss |
| SF at KC | SF | 54% | 49% | 55% | KC 5-4 | Miss |
| ATH at AZ | AZ | 54% | 52% | 54% | AZ 15-5 | Hit |
| MIN at CLE | CLE | 53% | 53% | 53% | MIN 10-6 | Miss |
| DET at CHC | CHC | 53% | 53% | 53% | DET 5-1 | Miss |
| MIA at HOU | HOU | 52% | 48% | 53% | HOU 5-2 | Hit |
| LAD at PHI | LAD | 52% | 47% | 53% | LAD 9-5 | Hit |
| SD at ATL | ATL | 51% | 52% | 51% | ATL 7-6 | Hit |
| TB at TOR | TOR | 51% | 52% | 51% | TB 4-2 | Miss |
| CWS at TEX | TEX | 50.3% | 54% | 50.0% | CWS 4-2 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
SF at KC: the model took KC (51%), the market SF; the served pick was SF and the pick missed. LAD at PHI: the model took PHI (53%), the market LAD; the served pick was LAD and the pick hit. MIA at HOU: the model took MIA (52%), the market HOU; the served pick was HOU and the pick hit. SEA over CIN: model 52%, market 59%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. WSH over COL: model 51%, market 56%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: NYY 60% over PIT (hit), NYY 60% over PIT (miss), BOS 59% over BAL (hit).
Season to date
Through July 22: 289-245 (54.1%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 21-11.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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