MLB Picks for July 21: The Model Went 7-6
By Verdexed Analytics
13 MLB games on July 21. The model went 7-6 on the day. Season to date through July 21: 281-236 (54.4%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at CLE | CLE | 58% | 59% | 58% | CLE 5-2 | Hit |
| SD at ATL | ATL | 57% | 60% | 57% | SD 8-3 | Miss |
| ATH at AZ | AZ | 56% | 54% | 56% | AZ 6-5 | Hit |
| NYM at MIL | MIL | 55% | 53% | 55% | NYM 4-0 | Miss |
| CWS at TEX | TEX | 54% | 52% | 54% | TEX 10-0 | Hit |
| MIA at HOU | HOU | 53% | 51% | 53% | HOU 5-3 | Hit |
| LAD at PHI | PHI | 53% | 53% | 53% | LAD 2-1 | Miss |
| CIN at SEA | SEA | 52% | 52% | 52% | CIN 4-2 | Miss |
| DET at CHC | CHC | 52% | 53% | 52% | CHC 11-2 | Hit |
| STL at LAA | LAA | 52% | 52% | 52% | LAA 5-1 | Hit |
| WSH at COL | WSH | 51% | 51% | 51% | COL 8-7 | Miss |
| SF at KC | SF | 51% | 48% | 51% | KC 3-2 | Miss |
| TB at TOR | TB | 51% | 47% | 51% | TB 12-2 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
TB at TOR: the model took TOR (53%), the market TB; the served pick was TB and the pick hit. SF at KC: the model took KC (52%), the market SF; the served pick was SF and the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: CLE 58% over MIN (hit), ATL 57% over SD (miss), AZ 56% over ATH (hit).
Season to date
Through July 21: 281-236 (54.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 20-10.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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