MLB Picks for July 20: The Model Went 10-5
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on July 20. The model went 10-5 on the day. Season to date through July 20: 274-230 (54.4%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM at MIL | MIL | 65% | 63% | 65% | MIL 8-3 | Hit |
| CWS at TEX | TEX | 61% | 57% | 61% | CWS 10-3 | Miss |
| TB at TOR | TOR | 59% | 54% | 60% | TB 7-1 | Miss |
| BAL at BOS | BOS | 58% | 53% | 59% | BOS 6-5 | Hit |
| ATH at AZ | AZ | 57% | 53% | 58% | ATH 5-2 | Miss |
| CIN at SEA | SEA | 56% | 55% | 57% | SEA 8-0 | Hit |
| LAD at PHI | PHI | 56% | 52% | 56% | PHI 10-7 | Hit |
| SD at ATL | ATL | 55% | 54% | 55% | ATL 3-2 | Hit |
| WSH at COL | WSH | 53% | 56% | 53% | WSH 7-3 | Hit |
| MIA at HOU | HOU | 52% | 47% | 53% | HOU 8-5 | Hit |
| MIN at CLE | MIN | 52% | 48% | 53% | CLE 13-4 | Miss |
| SF at KC | KC | 52% | 50% | 52% | KC 4-3 | Hit |
| DET at CHC | CHC | 51% | 53% | 51% | DET 8-6 | Miss |
| PIT at NYY | NYY | 51% | 48% | 51% | NYY 8-5 | Hit |
| STL at LAA | LAA | 51% | 47% | 51% | LAA 3-2 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
MIA at HOU: the model took MIA (53%), the market HOU; the served pick was HOU and the pick hit. MIN at CLE: the model took CLE (52%), the market MIN; the served pick was MIN and the pick missed. STL at LAA: the model took STL (53%), the market LAA; the served pick was LAA and the pick hit. PIT at NYY: the model took PIT (52%), the market NYY; the served pick was NYY and the pick hit. TOR over TB: model 54%, market 60%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. BOS over BAL: model 53%, market 59%, a 5-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 65% over NYM (hit), TEX 61% over CWS (miss), TOR 59% over TB (miss).
Season to date
Through July 20: 274-230 (54.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 20-10.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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