MLB Picks for July 19: The Model Went 10-6
By Verdexed Analytics
16 MLB games on July 19. The model went 10-6 on the day. Season to date through July 19: 264-225 (54.0%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF at SEA | SEA | 62% | 58% | 64% | SEA 6-3 | Hit |
| CIN at COL | CIN | 59% | 57% | 60% | CIN 9-6 | Hit |
| MIN at CHC | CHC | 59% | 54% | 61% | CHC 10-1 | Hit |
| DET at LAA | DET | 58% | 56% | 58% | LAA 3-2 | Miss |
| WSH at ATH | WSH | 55% | 51% | 57% | WSH 5-2 | Hit |
| TB at BOS | BOS | 54% | 54% | 53% | BOS 6-1 | Hit |
| SD at KC | KC | 53% | 51% | 54% | SD 19-2 | Miss |
| MIA at MIL | MIL | 53% | 52% | 54% | MIL 3-1 | Hit |
| STL at AZ | AZ | 53% | 52% | 53% | AZ 8-7 | Hit |
| NYM at PHI | NYM | 53% | 48% | 54% | NYM 6-1 | Hit |
| LAD at NYY | LAD | 52% | 51% | 53% | NYY 2-1 | Miss |
| LAD at NYY | LAD | 52% | 51% | 53% | LAD 8-2 | Hit |
| BAL at HOU | HOU | 52% | 51% | 52% | BAL 5-2 | Miss |
| TEX at ATL | TEX | 52% | 49% | 53% | ATL 8-5 | Miss |
| PIT at CLE | PIT | 52% | 54% | 51% | PIT 7-1 | Hit |
| CWS at TOR | TOR | 51% | 55% | 49% | CWS 3-0 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
NYM at PHI: the model took PHI (52%), the market NYM; the served pick was NYM and the pick hit. CWS at TOR: the model took TOR (55%), the market CWS; the served pick was TOR and the pick missed. TEX at ATL: the model took ATL (51%), the market TEX; the served pick was TEX and the pick missed. CHC over MIN: model 54%, market 61%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. WSH over ATH: model 51%, market 57%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit. SEA over SF: model 58%, market 64%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: SEA 62% over SF (hit), CIN 59% over COL (hit), CHC 59% over MIN (hit).
Season to date
Through July 19: 264-225 (54.0%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 19-9.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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