MLB Picks for July 18: The Model Went 11-4
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on July 18. The model went 11-4 on the day. Season to date through July 18: 254-219 (53.7%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET at LAA | DET | 60% | 54% | 64% | DET 7-0 | Hit |
| NYM at PHI | PHI | 60% | 59% | 61% | PHI 6-1 | Hit |
| MIA at MIL | MIL | 57% | 59% | 56% | MIL 8-6 | Hit |
| MIN at CHC | CHC | 56% | 56% | 56% | CHC 6-2 | Hit |
| SF at SEA | SEA | 55% | 53% | 56% | SEA 4-3 | Hit |
| PIT at CLE | CLE | 53% | 53% | 53% | PIT 7-1 | Miss |
| PIT at CLE | CLE | 53% | 53% | 53% | CLE 5-3 | Hit |
| WSH at ATH | ATH | 53% | 53% | 53% | ATH 15-1 | Hit |
| CIN at COL | CIN | 53% | 57% | 51% | COL 10-3 | Miss |
| STL at AZ | AZ | 53% | 53% | 52% | AZ 5-3 | Hit |
| CWS at TOR | TOR | 52% | 55% | 51% | TOR 1-0 | Hit |
| TEX at ATL | ATL | 52% | 53% | 51% | TEX 7-6 | Miss |
| TB at BOS | BOS | 52% | 54% | 50.2% | BOS 7-6 | Hit |
| BAL at HOU | HOU | 51% | 52% | 49.8% | BAL 4-2 | Miss |
| SD at KC | KC | 50% | 53% | 49% | KC 6-1 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
SD at KC: the model took KC (53%), the market SD; the served pick was KC and the pick hit. BAL at HOU: the model took HOU (52%), the market BAL; the served pick was HOU and the pick missed. DET over LAA: model 54%, market 64%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. CIN over COL: model 57%, market 51%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: DET 60% over LAA (hit), PHI 60% over NYM (hit), MIL 57% over MIA (hit).
Season to date
Through July 18: 254-219 (53.7%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 18-9.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.