MLB Picks for July 17: The Model Went 4-10
By Verdexed Analytics
14 MLB games on July 17. The model went 4-10 on the day. Season to date through July 17: 243-215 (53.1%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX at ATL | ATL | 62% | 60% | 65% | ATL 15-1 | Hit |
| CWS at TOR | TOR | 58% | 62% | 55% | CWS 12-4 | Miss |
| SF at SEA | SEA | 56% | 54% | 59% | SF 7-0 | Miss |
| MIA at MIL | MIL | 56% | 54% | 58% | MIL 2-1 | Hit |
| MIN at CHC | CHC | 55% | 54% | 57% | MIN 5-2 | Miss |
| SD at KC | SD | 53% | 53% | 52% | KC 7-6 | Miss |
| TB at BOS | BOS | 52% | 54% | 51% | BOS 5-3 | Hit |
| TB at BOS | BOS | 52% | 54% | 51% | BOS 10-0 | Hit |
| LAD at NYY | NYY | 52% | 54% | 49.9% | LAD 2-1 | Miss |
| BAL at HOU | HOU | 52% | 52% | 51% | BAL 3-2 | Miss |
| WSH at ATH | ATH | 51% | 53% | 49.5% | WSH 23-4 | Miss |
| STL at AZ | AZ | 51% | 53% | 49% | STL 5-4 | Miss |
| CIN at COL | COL | 51% | 51% | 52% | CIN 7-2 | Miss |
| DET at LAA | LAA | 51% | 53% | 49% | DET 2-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
LAD at NYY: the model took NYY (54%), the market LAD; the served pick was NYY and the pick missed. STL at AZ: the model took AZ (53%), the market STL; the served pick was AZ and the pick missed. DET at LAA: the model took LAA (53%), the market DET; the served pick was LAA and the pick missed. WSH at ATH: the model took ATH (53%), the market WSH; the served pick was ATH and the pick missed. TOR over CWS: model 62%, market 55%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed. ATL over TEX: model 60%, market 65%, a 6-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: ATL 62% over TEX (hit), TOR 58% over CWS (miss), SEA 56% over SF (miss).
Season to date
Through July 17: 243-215 (53.1%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 16-9.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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