MLB2026-07-16MLB Picks for July 16: The Model Went 0-1
By Verdexed Analytics
1 MLB game on July 16. The model went 0-1 on the day. Season to date through July 16: 239-205 (53.8%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM at PHI | PHI | 55% | 55% | 54% | NYM 4-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: PHI 55% over NYM (miss).
Season to date
Through July 16: 239-205 (53.8%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 15-9.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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