MLB Picks for July 12: The Model Went 9-6
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on July 12. The model went 9-6 on the day. Season to date through July 12: 239-204 (54.0%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ at LAD | LAD | 61% | 53% | 67% | AZ 5-3 | Miss |
| COL at SF | SF | 56% | 54% | 57% | SF 3-1 | Hit |
| SEA at TB | TB | 55% | 53% | 56% | SEA 8-2 | Miss |
| KC at BAL | BAL | 55% | 51% | 58% | BAL 8-2 | Hit |
| CHC at CIN | CHC | 54% | 53% | 54% | CHC 8-4 | Hit |
| TOR at SD | TOR | 54% | 53% | 54% | SD 5-4 | Miss |
| HOU at TEX | TEX | 53% | 51% | 55% | TEX 6-5 | Hit |
| LAA at MIN | MIN | 53% | 50.0% | 55% | MIN 4-2 | Hit |
| PHI at DET | DET | 52% | 50.2% | 54% | PHI 5-0 | Miss |
| MIL at PIT | PIT | 52% | 50.3% | 53% | PIT 14-5 | Hit |
| ATH at CWS | CWS | 52% | 49% | 54% | CWS 9-1 | Hit |
| BOS at NYM | BOS | 52% | 54% | 50.5% | BOS 3-2 | Hit |
| ATL at STL | STL | 51% | 47% | 54% | ATL 4-3 | Miss |
| NYY at WSH | NYY | 51% | 53% | 49% | NYY 5-3 | Hit |
| CLE at MIA | MIA | 50.1% | 49.5% | 51% | CLE 5-2 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
ATL at STL: the model took ATL (53%), the market STL; the served pick was STL and the pick missed. ATH at CWS: the model took ATH (51%), the market CWS; the served pick was CWS and the pick hit. NYY at WSH: the model took NYY (53%), the market WSH; the served pick was NYY and the pick hit. CLE at MIA: the model took CLE (50.4%), the market MIA; the served pick was MIA and the pick missed. LAD over AZ: model 53%, market 67%, a 14-point gap; the pick missed. BAL over KC: model 51%, market 58%, a 7-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 61% over AZ (miss), SF 56% over COL (hit), TB 55% over SEA (miss).
Season to date
Through July 12: 239-204 (54.0%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 15-9.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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