MLB Picks for July 11: The Model Went 6-10
By Verdexed Analytics
16 MLB games on July 11. The model went 6-10 on the day. Season to date through July 11: 230-198 (53.7%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ at LAD | LAD | 66% | 60% | 71% | AZ 9-2 | Miss |
| NYY at WSH | NYY | 60% | 56% | 64% | NYY 4-2 | Hit |
| LAA at MIN | MIN | 60% | 57% | 62% | MIN 5-3 | Hit |
| COL at SF | SF | 56% | 55% | 57% | SF 4-2 | Hit |
| KC at BAL | BAL | 56% | 52% | 59% | BAL 6-1 | Hit |
| CLE at MIA | MIA | 55% | 51% | 58% | CLE 4-1 | Miss |
| PHI at DET | PHI | 54% | 53% | 56% | PHI 4-2 | Hit |
| MIL at PIT | MIL | 54% | 55% | 53% | PIT 7-6 | Miss |
| BOS at NYM | NYM | 54% | 48% | 59% | BOS 4-0 | Miss |
| ATL at STL | ATL | 52% | 55% | 49% | STL 4-1 | Miss |
| HOU at TEX | TEX | 52% | 51% | 52% | HOU 9-3 | Miss |
| MIL at PIT | MIL | 51% | 55% | 48% | PIT 3-2 | Miss |
| SEA at TB | TB | 51% | 51% | 51% | TB 6-1 | Hit |
| TOR at SD | TOR | 51% | 52% | 49.5% | SD 8-7 | Miss |
| CHC at CIN | CIN | 51% | 49% | 51% | CHC 5-3 | Miss |
| ATH at CWS | ATH | 50.5% | 52% | 49.6% | CWS 1-0 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
BOS at NYM: the model took BOS (52%), the market NYM; the served pick was NYM and the pick missed. MIL at PIT: the model took MIL (55%), the market PIT; the served pick was MIL and the pick missed. ATL at STL: the model took ATL (55%), the market STL; the served pick was ATL and the pick missed. TOR at SD: the model took TOR (52%), the market SD; the served pick was TOR and the pick missed. CHC at CIN: the model took CHC (51%), the market CIN; the served pick was CIN and the pick missed. ATH at CWS: the model took ATH (52%), the market CWS; the served pick was ATH and the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 66% over AZ (miss), NYY 60% over WSH (hit), MIN 60% over LAA (hit).
Season to date
Through July 11: 230-198 (53.7%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 15-8.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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