MLB Picks for July 10: The Model Went 5-9
By Verdexed Analytics
14 MLB games on July 10. The model went 5-9 on the day. Season to date through July 10: 224-188 (54.4%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ at LAD | LAD | 65% | 53% | 69% | AZ 9-3 | Miss |
| NYY at WSH | NYY | 59% | 56% | 59% | NYY 5-3 | Hit |
| ATL at STL | ATL | 58% | 55% | 60% | STL 2-1 | Miss |
| ATH at CWS | CWS | 58% | 51% | 60% | CWS 14-1 | Hit |
| COL at SF | SF | 57% | 55% | 58% | COL 4-3 | Miss |
| LAA at MIN | MIN | 56% | 50.3% | 58% | LAA 4-3 | Miss |
| KC at BAL | BAL | 56% | 50.2% | 58% | BAL 5-3 | Hit |
| HOU at TEX | HOU | 55% | 52% | 56% | TEX 7-3 | Miss |
| BOS at NYM | NYM | 53% | 47% | 55% | BOS 6-2 | Miss |
| CLE at MIA | MIA | 52% | 49.5% | 52% | CLE 3-2 | Miss |
| TOR at SD | SD | 52% | 48% | 53% | TOR 5-3 | Miss |
| PHI at DET | DET | 51% | 49% | 52% | DET 10-2 | Hit |
| SEA at TB | TB | 51% | 49% | 51% | TB 7-2 | Hit |
| CHC at CIN | CHC | 51% | 50.0% | 51% | CIN 4-0 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
BOS at NYM: the model took BOS (53%), the market NYM; the served pick was NYM and the pick missed. TOR at SD: the model took TOR (52%), the market SD; the served pick was SD and the pick missed. PHI at DET: the model took PHI (51%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick hit. CLE at MIA: the model took CLE (50.4%), the market MIA; the served pick was MIA and the pick missed. SEA at TB: the model took SEA (51%), the market TB; the served pick was TB and the pick hit. LAD over AZ: model 53%, market 69%, a 16-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 65% over AZ (miss), NYY 59% over WSH (hit), ATL 58% over STL (miss).
Season to date
Through July 10: 224-188 (54.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 14-7.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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