MLB Picks for July 9: The Model Went 10-3
By Verdexed Analytics
13 MLB games on July 9. The model went 10-3 on the day. Season to date through July 9: 219-179 (55.0%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at CIN | PHI | 59% | 54% | 61% | PHI 1-0 | Hit |
| LAA at TEX | TEX | 57% | 55% | 57% | TEX 7-6 | Hit |
| NYY at TB | TB | 57% | 51% | 59% | NYY 12-4 | Miss |
| MIL at STL | MIL | 55% | 57% | 55% | MIL 8-4 | Hit |
| KC at NYM | NYM | 55% | 49.6% | 57% | NYM 7-3 | Hit |
| SEA at MIA | SEA | 55% | 49% | 57% | MIA 8-4 | Miss |
| ATH at DET | DET | 55% | 53% | 56% | DET 4-1 | Hit |
| CLE at MIN | CLE | 54% | 52% | 55% | CLE 5-2 | Hit |
| COL at SF | SF | 53% | 53% | - | SF 8-2 | Hit |
| CHC at BAL | BAL | 52% | 49% | 54% | BAL 3-2 | Hit |
| AZ at SD | SD | 52% | 49% | 53% | AZ 3-1 | Miss |
| ATL at PIT | ATL | 52% | 50.1% | 53% | ATL 10-5 | Hit |
| BOS at CWS | BOS | 51% | 55% | 49% | BOS 2-1 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
KC at NYM: the model took KC (50.4%), the market NYM; the served pick was NYM and the pick hit. SEA at MIA: the model took MIA (51%), the market SEA; the served pick was SEA and the pick missed. BOS at CWS: the model took BOS (55%), the market CWS; the served pick was BOS and the pick hit. CHC at BAL: the model took CHC (51%), the market BAL; the served pick was BAL and the pick hit. AZ at SD: the model took AZ (51%), the market SD; the served pick was SD and the pick missed. TB over NYY: model 51%, market 59%, an 8-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: PHI 59% over CIN (hit), TEX 57% over LAA (hit), TB 57% over NYY (miss).
Season to date
Through July 9: 219-179 (55.0%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 14-6.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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