MLB Picks for July 8: The Model Went 9-6
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on July 8. The model went 9-6 on the day. Season to date through July 8: 209-176 (54.3%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at LAD | LAD | 60% | 56% | 67% | LAD 4-3 | Hit |
| LAA at TEX | TEX | 56% | 53% | 59% | LAA 13-1 | Miss |
| MIL at STL | MIL | 55% | 55% | 56% | STL 5-1 | Miss |
| AZ at SD | SD | 55% | 53% | 57% | SD 10-4 | Hit |
| ATH at DET | DET | 54% | 51% | 59% | DET 6-1 | Hit |
| SEA at MIA | SEA | 54% | 53% | 55% | MIA 2-0 | Miss |
| CHC at BAL | BAL | 52% | 50.3% | 54% | CHC 9-7 | Miss |
| PHI at CIN | PHI | 52% | 52% | - | CIN 11-5 | Miss |
| CLE at MIN | MIN | 52% | 49% | 55% | MIN 6-5 | Hit |
| TOR at SF | TOR | 51% | 51% | 50.5% | TOR 10-0 | Hit |
| BOS at CWS | BOS | 51% | 54% | 47% | BOS 5-0 | Hit |
| ATL at PIT | PIT | 51% | 49.9% | 52% | ATL 3-0 | Miss |
| NYY at TB | TB | 51% | 49% | 54% | TB 3-0 | Hit |
| KC at NYM | NYM | 51% | 51% | - | NYM 6-2 | Hit |
| HOU at WSH | WSH | 51% | 47% | 56% | WSH 8-2 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
HOU at WSH: the model took HOU (53%), the market WSH; the served pick was WSH and the pick hit. BOS at CWS: the model took BOS (54%), the market CWS; the served pick was BOS and the pick hit. CLE at MIN: the model took CLE (51%), the market MIN; the served pick was MIN and the pick hit. NYY at TB: the model took NYY (51%), the market TB; the served pick was TB and the pick hit. ATL at PIT: the model took ATL (50.2%), the market PIT; the served pick was PIT and the pick missed. LAD over COL: model 56%, market 67%, a 12-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 60% over COL (hit), TEX 56% over LAA (miss), MIL 55% over STL (miss).
Season to date
Through July 8: 209-176 (54.3%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 14-6.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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