MLB Picks for July 7: The Model Went 11-5
By Verdexed Analytics
16 MLB games on July 7. The model went 11-5 on the day. Season to date through July 7: 200-170 (54.1%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at LAD | LAD | 68% | 66% | 70% | COL 4-3 | Miss |
| ATH at DET | DET | 59% | 56% | 64% | DET 6-2 | Hit |
| LAA at TEX | TEX | 58% | 57% | 59% | TEX 8-3 | Hit |
| MIL at STL | MIL | 57% | 53% | 64% | MIL 4-3 | Hit |
| MIL at STL | MIL | 57% | 53% | 64% | MIL 10-2 | Hit |
| ATL at PIT | PIT | 56% | 52% | 61% | PIT 12-4 | Hit |
| PHI at CIN | PHI | 55% | 51% | 61% | PHI 4-1 | Hit |
| KC at NYM | NYM | 53% | 49% | 58% | KC 16-12 | Miss |
| BOS at CWS | BOS | 53% | 52% | 54% | BOS 8-1 | Hit |
| CHC at BAL | CHC | 52% | 52% | 52% | CHC 5-2 | Hit |
| TOR at SF | TOR | 51% | 51% | 52% | TOR 9-3 | Hit |
| HOU at WSH | WSH | 51% | 50.4% | 53% | HOU 6-3 | Miss |
| CLE at MIN | CLE | 51% | 53% | 48% | MIN 3-1 | Miss |
| AZ at SD | SD | 50.3% | 48% | 54% | SD 4-1 | Hit |
| SEA at MIA | SEA | 50.2% | 51% | 49% | MIA 6-5 | Miss |
| NYY at TB | TB | 50.0% | 49% | 52% | TB 6-4 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
KC at NYM: the model took KC (51%), the market NYM; the served pick was NYM and the pick missed. AZ at SD: the model took AZ (52%), the market SD; the served pick was SD and the pick hit. CLE at MIN: the model took CLE (53%), the market MIN; the served pick was CLE and the pick missed. NYY at TB: the model took NYY (51%), the market TB; the served pick was TB and the pick hit. SEA at MIA: the model took SEA (51%), the market MIA; the served pick was SEA and the pick missed. MIL over STL: model 53%, market 64%, a 10-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 68% over COL (miss), DET 59% over ATH (hit), TEX 58% over LAA (hit).
Season to date
Through July 7: 200-170 (54.1%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 13-6.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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