MLB Picks for July 6: The Model Went 5-3
By Verdexed Analytics
8 MLB games on July 6. The model went 5-3 on the day. Season to date through July 6: 189-165 (53.4%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at LAD | LAD | 61% | 58% | 66% | LAD 8-7 | Hit |
| PHI at KC | PHI | 59% | 57% | 64% | KC 15-1 | Miss |
| MIL at STL | MIL | 55% | 57% | 53% | MIL 4-3 | Hit |
| NYM at ATL | ATL | 55% | 55% | 55% | NYM 7-6 | Miss |
| TOR at SF | TOR | 52% | 53% | 51% | SF 10-1 | Miss |
| AZ at SD | AZ | 51% | 53% | 49% | AZ 8-0 | Hit |
| HOU at WSH | WSH | 51% | 48% | 55% | WSH 12-11 | Hit |
| NYY at TB | NYY | 51% | 52% | 49% | NYY 5-1 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
HOU at WSH: the model took HOU (52%), the market WSH; the served pick was WSH and the pick hit. AZ at SD: the model took AZ (53%), the market SD; the served pick was AZ and the pick hit. NYY at TB: the model took NYY (52%), the market TB; the served pick was NYY and the pick hit. LAD over COL: model 58%, market 66%, an 8-point gap; the pick hit. PHI over KC: model 57%, market 64%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 61% over COL (hit), PHI 59% over KC (miss), MIL 55% over STL (hit).
Season to date
Through July 6: 189-165 (53.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 13-5.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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