MLB Picks for July 5: The Model Went 5-10
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on July 5. The model went 5-10 on the day. Season to date through July 5: 184-162 (53.2%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD at LAD | LAD | 59% | 55% | 66% | SD 5-2 | Miss |
| BOS at LAA | BOS | 58% | 58% | 59% | BOS 7-5 | Hit |
| CWS at CLE | CLE | 55% | 54% | 58% | CWS 7-6 | Miss |
| PHI at KC | PHI | 55% | 54% | 56% | KC 5-2 | Miss |
| SF at COL | SF | 54% | 55% | 53% | COL 7-6 | Miss |
| STL at CHC | CHC | 53% | 51% | 58% | CHC 6-4 | Hit |
| MIN at NYY | NYY | 53% | 52% | 55% | MIN 6-1 | Miss |
| MIL at AZ | MIL | 53% | 53% | 53% | MIL 3-2 | Hit |
| TB at HOU | TB | 52% | 52% | - | HOU 2-0 | Miss |
| NYM at ATL | ATL | 52% | 51% | 53% | NYM 10-9 | Miss |
| PIT at WSH | WSH | 51% | 49.7% | 54% | PIT 11-5 | Miss |
| TOR at SEA | SEA | 51% | 49% | 56% | SEA 4-0 | Hit |
| BAL at CIN | BAL | 51% | 52% | 50.0% | CIN 3-2 | Miss |
| MIA at ATH | ATH | 51% | 49.8% | 53% | MIA 9-8 | Miss |
| DET at TEX | DET | 50.3% | 49.6% | 52% | DET 6-3 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
TOR at SEA: the model took TOR (51%), the market SEA; the served pick was SEA and the pick hit. PIT at WSH: the model took PIT (50.3%), the market WSH; the served pick was WSH and the pick missed. MIA at ATH: the model took MIA (50.2%), the market ATH; the served pick was ATH and the pick missed. DET at TEX: the model took TEX (50.4%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick hit. BAL at CIN: the model took BAL (52%), the market CIN; the served pick was BAL and the pick missed. LAD over SD: model 55%, market 66%, an 11-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 59% over SD (miss), BOS 58% over LAA (hit), CLE 55% over CWS (miss).
Season to date
Through July 5: 184-162 (53.2%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 12-5.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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