MLB Picks for July 4: The Model Went 9-6
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on July 4. The model went 9-6 on the day. Season to date through July 4: 179-152 (54.1%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at LAA | BOS | 69% | 74% | 60% | BOS 8-1 | Hit |
| SD at LAD | LAD | 64% | 62% | 68% | LAD 3-0 | Hit |
| NYM at ATL | ATL | 60% | 60% | 61% | ATL 14-3 | Hit |
| PIT at WSH | PIT | 57% | 55% | 60% | PIT 7-1 | Hit |
| MIL at AZ | MIL | 57% | 56% | 58% | AZ 4-3 | Miss |
| CWS at CLE | CLE | 56% | 56% | 57% | CWS 3-1 | Miss |
| PHI at KC | PHI | 56% | 55% | 58% | PHI 6-1 | Hit |
| MIN at NYY | NYY | 55% | 53% | 59% | MIN 11-4 | Miss |
| SF at COL | SF | 55% | 55% | 55% | SF 6-4 | Hit |
| STL at CHC | CHC | 54% | 51% | 60% | STL 3-0 | Miss |
| MIA at ATH | MIA | 54% | 54% | 53% | MIA 7-2 | Hit |
| TOR at SEA | SEA | 53% | 50.1% | 59% | SEA 11-0 | Hit |
| BAL at CIN | CIN | 52% | 51% | 53% | BAL 8-5 | Miss |
| TB at HOU | TB | 51% | 52% | 49% | HOU 10-8 | Miss |
| DET at TEX | DET | 50.2% | 49% | 52% | DET 3-0 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
TB at HOU: the model took TB (52%), the market HOU; the served pick was TB and the pick missed. DET at TEX: the model took TEX (51%), the market DET; the served pick was DET and the pick hit. BOS over LAA: model 74%, market 60%, a 13-point gap; the pick hit. CHC over STL: model 51%, market 60%, a 9-point gap; the pick missed. SEA over TOR: model 50.1%, market 59%, a 9-point gap; the pick hit. NYY over MIN: model 53%, market 59%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: BOS 69% over LAA (hit), LAD 64% over SD (hit), ATL 60% over NYM (hit).
Season to date
Through July 4: 179-152 (54.1%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 12-5.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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