MLB Picks for July 3: The Model Went 10-3
By Verdexed Analytics
13 MLB games on July 3. The model went 10-3 on the day. Season to date through July 3: 170-146 (53.8%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN at NYY | NYY | 59% | 58% | 62% | NYY 5-2 | Hit |
| SD at LAD | LAD | 57% | 52% | 68% | LAD 4-3 | Hit |
| MIL at AZ | MIL | 56% | 55% | 59% | MIL 7-4 | Hit |
| CWS at CLE | CLE | 55% | 55% | 56% | CLE 4-3 | Hit |
| SF at COL | SF | 55% | 54% | 58% | COL 15-3 | Miss |
| STL at CHC | CHC | 54% | 54% | 54% | STL 17-1 | Miss |
| BOS at LAA | BOS | 53% | 55% | 49% | BOS 5-2 | Hit |
| TOR at SEA | TOR | 52% | 51% | 54% | TOR 2-0 | Hit |
| BAL at CIN | BAL | 52% | 51% | 53% | BAL 3-0 | Hit |
| TB at HOU | TB | 52% | 53% | 49% | TB 3-1 | Hit |
| NYM at ATL | ATL | 51% | 51% | 52% | ATL 5-3 | Hit |
| MIA at ATH | ATH | 51% | 49% | 54% | MIA 12-5 | Miss |
| PIT at WSH | WSH | 50.2% | 47% | 56% | WSH 9-5 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
PIT at WSH: the model took PIT (53%), the market WSH; the served pick was WSH and the pick hit. MIA at ATH: the model took MIA (51%), the market ATH; the served pick was ATH and the pick missed. BOS at LAA: the model took BOS (55%), the market LAA; the served pick was BOS and the pick hit. TB at HOU: the model took TB (53%), the market HOU; the served pick was TB and the pick hit. LAD over SD: model 52%, market 68%, a 16-point gap; the pick hit.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: NYY 59% over MIN (hit), LAD 57% over SD (hit), MIL 56% over AZ (hit).
Season to date
Through July 3: 170-146 (53.8%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 10-5.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.