MLB Picks for July 2: The Model Went 4-5
By Verdexed Analytics
9 MLB games on July 2. The model went 4-5 on the day. Season to date through July 2: 160-143 (52.8%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at MIL | MIL | 59% | 57% | 64% | CIN 7-2 | Miss |
| LAA at SEA | SEA | 58% | 55% | 65% | SEA 1-0 | Hit |
| SD at LAD | LAD | 57% | 53% | 63% | LAD 12-7 | Hit |
| MIA at COL | MIA | 55% | 56% | 53% | COL 14-4 | Miss |
| PIT at PHI | PHI | 54% | 53% | 54% | PIT 6-1 | Miss |
| TB at KC | TB | 53% | 53% | 52% | TB 5-2 | Hit |
| DET at TEX | TEX | 52% | 51% | 55% | TEX 10-4 | Hit |
| STL at ATL | ATL | 51% | 51% | 52% | STL 11-5 | Miss |
| CWS at CLE | CWS | 51% | 49.8% | 52% | CLE 6-5 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
CWS at CLE: the model took CLE (50.2%), the market CWS; the served pick was CWS and the pick missed. SEA over LAA: model 55%, market 65%, an 11-point gap; the pick hit. LAD over SD: model 53%, market 63%, an 11-point gap; the pick hit. MIL over CIN: model 57%, market 64%, a 7-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 59% over CIN (miss), SEA 58% over LAA (hit), LAD 57% over SD (hit).
Season to date
Through July 2: 160-143 (52.8%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 10-5.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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