MLB Picks for July 1: The Model Went 7-7
By Verdexed Analytics
14 MLB games on July 1. The model went 7-7 on the day. Season to date through July 1: 156-138 (53.1%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN at MIL | MIL | 57% | 56% | 60% | MIL 4-2 | Hit |
| MIA at COL | MIA | 57% | 55% | 59% | COL 6-3 | Miss |
| LAD at ATH | LAD | 56% | 54% | 60% | ATH 7-1 | Miss |
| DET at NYY | NYY | 56% | 56% | 56% | DET 6-2 | Miss |
| TB at KC | TB | 54% | 54% | 56% | TB 4-0 | Hit |
| STL at ATL | ATL | 54% | 53% | 55% | ATL 5-1 | Hit |
| WSH at BOS | BOS | 53% | 51% | 57% | WSH 10-2 | Miss |
| MIN at HOU | HOU | 53% | 52% | 55% | MIN 8-3 | Miss |
| PIT at PHI | PHI | 53% | 51% | 55% | PHI 10-6 | Hit |
| SD at CHC | CHC | 52% | 52% | 54% | CHC 23-3 | Hit |
| CWS at BAL | BAL | 52% | 49.8% | 56% | BAL 6-1 | Hit |
| SF at AZ | AZ | 52% | 51% | 53% | SF 6-4 | Miss |
| NYM at TOR | TOR | 51% | 53% | 49% | TOR 9-3 | Hit |
| TEX at CLE | TEX | 50.2% | 50.4% | 49.8% | CLE 9-4 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
CWS at BAL: the model took CWS (50.2%), the market BAL; the served pick was BAL and the pick hit. NYM at TOR: the model took TOR (53%), the market NYM; the served pick was TOR and the pick hit. TEX at CLE: the model took TEX (50.4%), the market CLE; the served pick was TEX and the pick missed. LAD over ATH: model 54%, market 60%, a 6-point gap; the pick missed. BOS over WSH: model 51%, market 57%, a 5-point gap; the pick missed.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 57% over CIN (hit), MIA 57% over COL (miss), LAD 56% over ATH (miss).
Season to date
Through July 1: 156-138 (53.1%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 10-5.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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