MLB Picks for June 30: The Model Went 9-6
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on June 30. The model went 9-6 on the day. Season to date through June 30: 149-131 (53.2%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT at PHI | PHI | 60% | 60% | - | PHI 8-0 | Hit |
| MIA at COL | MIA | 58% | 58% | - | MIA 14-3 | Hit |
| TB at KC | TB | 55% | 55% | - | TB 10-4 | Hit |
| LAD at ATH | LAD | 55% | 55% | - | LAD 9-3 | Hit |
| CIN at MIL | MIL | 54% | 54% | - | MIL 7-2 | Hit |
| SD at CHC | CHC | 54% | 54% | - | CHC 9-7 | Hit |
| LAA at SEA | SEA | 54% | 54% | - | SEA 8-3 | Hit |
| NYM at TOR | TOR | 54% | 54% | - | NYM 3-0 | Miss |
| STL at ATL | ATL | 53% | 53% | - | STL 5-3 | Miss |
| TEX at CLE | TEX | 53% | 53% | - | TEX 4-2 | Hit |
| WSH at BOS | BOS | 52% | 52% | - | WSH 8-1 | Miss |
| DET at NYY | NYY | 52% | 52% | - | DET 9-3 | Miss |
| CWS at BAL | BAL | 52% | 52% | - | CWS 9-3 | Miss |
| SF at AZ | AZ | 51% | 51% | - | AZ 8-2 | Hit |
| MIN at HOU | MIN | 50.2% | 50.2% | - | HOU 6-4 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: PHI 60% over PIT (hit), MIA 58% over COL (hit), TB 55% over KC (hit).
Season to date
Through June 30: 149-131 (53.2%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 10-5.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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