MLB Picks for June 29: The Model Went 6-7
By Verdexed Analytics
13 MLB games on June 29. The model went 6-7 on the day. Season to date through June 29: 140-125 (52.8%), Brier 0.249.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA at SEA | SEA | 60% | 60% | - | SEA 6-2 | Hit |
| MIA at COL | MIA | 56% | 56% | - | MIA 10-7 | Hit |
| NYM at TOR | TOR | 56% | 56% | - | TOR 2-1 | Hit |
| WSH at BOS | BOS | 54% | 54% | - | BOS 6-3 | Hit |
| MIN at HOU | HOU | 53% | 53% | - | MIN 5-4 | Miss |
| CIN at MIL | MIL | 53% | 53% | - | MIL 5-3 | Hit |
| TEX at CLE | CLE | 53% | 53% | - | TEX 6-3 | Miss |
| CWS at BAL | BAL | 53% | 53% | - | CWS 8-2 | Miss |
| PIT at PHI | PHI | 52% | 52% | - | PIT 11-7 | Miss |
| DET at NYY | NYY | 52% | 52% | - | DET 7-3 | Miss |
| SF at AZ | SF | 50.4% | 50.4% | - | AZ 5-4 | Miss |
| SD at CHC | CHC | 50.4% | 50.4% | - | CHC 3-2 | Hit |
| LAD at ATH | ATH | 50.2% | 50.2% | - | LAD 9-4 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: SEA 60% over LAA (hit), MIA 56% over COL (hit), TOR 56% over NYM (hit).
Season to date
Through June 29: 140-125 (52.8%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.249. Picks at 60% or better went 10-5.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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