MLB Picks for June 28: The Model Went 8-7
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on June 28. The model went 8-7 on the day. Season to date through June 28: 134-118 (53.2%), Brier 0.250.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL at SF | ATL | 64% | 64% | - | SF 3-2 | Miss |
| TEX at TOR | TOR | 57% | 57% | - | TEX 3-2 | Miss |
| PHI at NYM | PHI | 56% | 56% | - | PHI 5-4 | Hit |
| CHC at MIL | MIL | 56% | 56% | - | CHC 4-3 | Miss |
| ATH at LAA | ATH | 56% | 56% | - | LAA 4-1 | Miss |
| KC at CWS | KC | 55% | 55% | - | KC 5-4 | Hit |
| WSH at BAL | BAL | 54% | 54% | - | WSH 6-4 | Miss |
| HOU at DET | HOU | 54% | 54% | - | HOU 7-5 | Hit |
| AZ at TB | TB | 54% | 54% | - | TB 5-1 | Hit |
| COL at MIN | MIN | 53% | 53% | - | MIN 3-2 | Hit |
| SEA at CLE | CLE | 51% | 51% | - | CLE 6-5 | Hit |
| CIN at PIT | PIT | 51% | 51% | - | PIT 9-4 | Hit |
| NYY at BOS | NYY | 51% | 51% | - | BOS 5-4 | Miss |
| MIA at STL | STL | 50.4% | 50.4% | - | STL 2-1 | Hit |
| LAD at SD | SD | 50.2% | 50.2% | - | LAD 4-2 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: ATL 64% over SF (miss), TOR 57% over TEX (miss), PHI 56% over NYM (hit).
Season to date
Through June 28: 134-118 (53.2%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.250. Picks at 60% or better went 9-5.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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