MLB Picks for June 26: The Model Went 7-8
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on June 26. The model went 7-8 on the day. Season to date through June 26: 122-100 (55.0%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC at MIL | MIL | 61% | 61% | - | MIL 6-2 | Hit |
| COL at MIN | MIN | 59% | 59% | - | MIN 9-8 | Hit |
| CIN at PIT | PIT | 55% | 55% | - | CIN 6-4 | Miss |
| ATL at SF | ATL | 53% | 53% | - | ATL 3-1 | Hit |
| PHI at NYM | PHI | 53% | 53% | - | PHI 2-1 | Hit |
| HOU at DET | HOU | 52% | 52% | - | DET 8-0 | Miss |
| WSH at BAL | BAL | 52% | 52% | - | BAL 3-1 | Hit |
| NYY at BOS | NYY | 52% | 52% | - | BOS 6-1 | Miss |
| LAD at SD | LAD | 52% | 52% | - | SD 7-1 | Miss |
| SEA at CLE | SEA | 51% | 51% | - | SEA 3-1 | Hit |
| ATH at LAA | LAA | 51% | 51% | - | ATH 9-3 | Miss |
| KC at CWS | KC | 51% | 51% | - | CWS 22-1 | Miss |
| TEX at TOR | TEX | 50% | 50% | - | TEX 5-4 | Hit |
| MIA at STL | STL | 50.4% | 50.4% | - | MIA 4-0 | Miss |
| AZ at TB | AZ | 50.4% | 50.4% | - | TB 6-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 61% over CHC (hit), MIN 59% over COL (hit), PIT 55% over CIN (miss).
Season to date
Through June 26: 122-100 (55.0%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 9-4.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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