MLB Picks for June 25: The Model Went 4-4
By Verdexed Analytics
8 MLB games on June 25. The model went 4-4 on the day. Season to date through June 25: 115-92 (55.6%), Brier 0.248.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX at TOR | TOR | 55% | 55% | - | TEX 6-5 | Miss |
| PHI at WSH | PHI | 55% | 55% | - | PHI 10-5 | Hit |
| NYY at BOS | NYY | 53% | 53% | - | BOS 6-3 | Miss |
| ATH at SF | SF | 53% | 53% | - | ATH 9-6 | Miss |
| KC at TB | TB | 52% | 52% | - | TB 13-2 | Hit |
| CHC at NYM | CHC | 51% | 51% | - | CHC 4-3 | Hit |
| HOU at DET | HOU | 50.4% | 50.4% | - | HOU 2-1 | Hit |
| SEA at PIT | SEA | 50.0% | 50.0% | - | PIT 5-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: TOR 55% over TEX (miss), PHI 55% over WSH (hit), NYY 53% over BOS (miss).
Season to date
Through June 25: 115-92 (55.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.248. Picks at 60% or better went 8-4.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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