MLB Picks for June 23: The Model Went 8-7
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on June 23. The model went 8-7 on the day. Season to date through June 23: 104-79 (56.8%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at COL | BOS | 64% | 64% | - | BOS 5-2 | Hit |
| HOU at TOR | TOR | 60% | 60% | - | HOU 9-7 | Miss |
| PHI at WSH | PHI | 57% | 57% | - | PHI 14-9 | Hit |
| KC at TB | TB | 55% | 55% | - | KC 12-5 | Miss |
| TEX at MIA | MIA | 54% | 54% | - | MIA 6-4 | Hit |
| BAL at LAA | BAL | 54% | 54% | - | LAA 5-1 | Miss |
| CLE at CWS | CLE | 53% | 53% | - | CWS 2-1 | Miss |
| LAD at MIN | LAD | 53% | 53% | - | LAD 12-3 | Hit |
| CHC at NYM | NYM | 52% | 52% | - | CHC 9-6 | Miss |
| SEA at PIT | SEA | 52% | 52% | - | SEA 3-2 | Hit |
| AZ at STL | STL | 52% | 52% | - | AZ 4-3 | Miss |
| ATH at SF | SF | 52% | 52% | - | SF 3-1 | Hit |
| ATL at SD | SD | 51% | 51% | - | SD 7-6 | Hit |
| NYY at DET | NYY | 51% | 51% | - | NYY 4-3 | Hit |
| MIL at CIN | CIN | 50.3% | 50.3% | - | MIL 2-0 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: BOS 64% over COL (hit), TOR 60% over HOU (miss), PHI 57% over WSH (hit).
Season to date
Through June 23: 104-79 (56.8%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 8-3.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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