MLB Picks for June 22: The Model Went 6-6
By Verdexed Analytics
12 MLB games on June 22. The model went 6-6 on the day. Season to date through June 22: 96-72 (57.1%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS at COL | BOS | 57% | 57% | - | COL 3-2 | Miss |
| KC at TB | TB | 55% | 55% | - | KC 2-1 | Miss |
| BAL at LAA | BAL | 55% | 55% | - | BAL 6-1 | Hit |
| HOU at TOR | TOR | 54% | 54% | - | TOR 4-2 | Hit |
| CLE at CWS | CLE | 53% | 53% | - | CWS 6-5 | Miss |
| LAD at MIN | LAD | 53% | 53% | - | LAD 2-1 | Hit |
| ATL at SD | SD | 53% | 53% | - | SD 1-0 | Hit |
| TEX at MIA | MIA | 53% | 53% | - | TEX 4-3 | Miss |
| NYY at DET | NYY | 52% | 52% | - | DET 5-3 | Miss |
| PHI at WSH | PHI | 51% | 51% | - | WSH 4-1 | Miss |
| MIL at CIN | MIL | 51% | 51% | - | MIL 2-1 | Hit |
| AZ at STL | STL | 50.3% | 50.3% | - | STL 3-2 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: BOS 57% over COL (miss), TB 55% over KC (miss), BAL 55% over LAA (hit).
Season to date
Through June 22: 96-72 (57.1%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 7-3.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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