MLB Picks for June 21: The Model Went 8-6
By Verdexed Analytics
14 MLB games on June 21. The model went 8-6 on the day. Season to date through June 21: 90-66 (57.7%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL at LAD | LAD | 60% | 60% | - | BAL 12-1 | Miss |
| NYM at PHI | PHI | 55% | 55% | - | PHI 6-2 | Hit |
| MIN at AZ | AZ | 54% | 54% | - | MIN 4-2 | Miss |
| BOS at SEA | SEA | 54% | 54% | - | SEA 3-1 | Hit |
| PIT at COL | PIT | 54% | 54% | - | PIT 8-6 | Hit |
| CIN at NYY | NYY | 53% | 53% | - | CIN 4-1 | Miss |
| LAA at ATH | ATH | 53% | 53% | - | LAA 9-7 | Miss |
| SD at TEX | TEX | 52% | 52% | - | TEX 4-3 | Hit |
| CWS at DET | DET | 52% | 52% | - | DET 5-4 | Hit |
| WSH at TB | TB | 52% | 52% | - | TB 4-3 | Hit |
| SF at MIA | SF | 51% | 51% | - | MIA 2-1 | Miss |
| CLE at HOU | HOU | 51% | 51% | - | HOU 2-1 | Hit |
| STL at KC | KC | 50.1% | 50.1% | - | STL 12-10 | Miss |
| MIL at ATL | MIL | 50.1% | 50.1% | - | MIL 9-4 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 60% over BAL (miss), PHI 55% over NYM (hit), AZ 54% over MIN (miss).
Season to date
Through June 21: 90-66 (57.7%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 7-3.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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