MLB Picks for June 19: The Model Went 12-2
By Verdexed Analytics
14 MLB games on June 19. The model went 12-2 on the day. Season to date through June 19: 78-50 (60.9%), Brier 0.244.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL at LAD | LAD | 55% | - | - | LAD 6-5 | Hit |
| CIN at NYY | NYY | 54% | - | - | NYY 5-0 | Hit |
| PIT at COL | PIT | 54% | - | - | COL 4-3 | Miss |
| CWS at DET | DET | 53% | - | - | DET 4-3 | Hit |
| LAA at ATH | ATH | 53% | - | - | ATH 12-11 | Hit |
| WSH at TB | TB | 53% | - | - | TB 5-2 | Hit |
| MIN at AZ | AZ | 52% | - | - | AZ 9-5 | Hit |
| BOS at SEA | SEA | 52% | - | - | BOS 6-2 | Miss |
| SF at MIA | MIA | 52% | - | - | MIA 4-3 | Hit |
| TOR at CHC | CHC | 52% | - | - | CHC 16-2 | Hit |
| SD at TEX | TEX | 52% | - | - | TEX 9-7 | Hit |
| STL at KC | KC | 51% | - | - | KC 6-5 | Hit |
| MIL at ATL | ATL | 51% | - | - | ATL 3-2 | Hit |
| CLE at HOU | HOU | 50.4% | - | - | HOU 9-3 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 55% over BAL (hit), NYY 54% over CIN (hit), PIT 54% over COL (miss).
Season to date
Through June 19: 78-50 (60.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.244. Picks at 60% or better went 7-2.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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