MLB Picks for June 17: The Model Went 8-6
By Verdexed Analytics
14 MLB games on June 17. The model went 8-6 on the day. Season to date through June 17: 66-48 (57.9%), Brier 0.245.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS at NYY | NYY | 65% | - | - | NYY 10-5 | Hit |
| LAA at AZ | AZ | 61% | - | - | AZ 8-1 | Hit |
| COL at CHC | CHC | 58% | - | - | CHC 8-6 | Hit |
| BAL at SEA | SEA | 55% | - | - | BAL 5-3 | Miss |
| SF at ATL | ATL | 55% | - | - | SF 7-5 | Miss |
| TB at LAD | LAD | 53% | - | - | LAD 5-4 | Hit |
| PIT at ATH | PIT | 53% | - | - | PIT 12-4 | Hit |
| KC at WSH | KC | 52% | - | - | KC 6-2 | Hit |
| CLE at MIL | MIL | 52% | - | - | MIL 9-4 | Hit |
| TOR at BOS | BOS | 52% | - | - | TOR 3-0 | Miss |
| MIA at PHI | PHI | 51% | - | - | MIA 12-4 | Miss |
| SD at STL | STL | 51% | - | - | SD 6-1 | Miss |
| DET at HOU | HOU | 50.4% | - | - | HOU 4-2 | Hit |
| NYM at CIN | CIN | 50.0% | - | - | NYM 9-1 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: NYY 65% over CWS (hit), AZ 61% over LAA (hit), CHC 58% over COL (hit).
Season to date
Through June 17: 66-48 (57.9%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.245. Picks at 60% or better went 7-2.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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