MLB Picks for June 15: The Model Went 8-2
By Verdexed Analytics
10 MLB games on June 15. The model went 8-2 on the day. Season to date through June 15: 58-42 (58.0%), Brier 0.247.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at CHC | CHC | 63% | - | - | CHC 5-4 | Hit |
| MIA at PHI | PHI | 61% | - | - | PHI 7-0 | Hit |
| LAA at AZ | AZ | 54% | - | - | AZ 4-3 | Hit |
| MIN at TEX | TEX | 53% | - | - | MIN 4-2 | Miss |
| NYM at CIN | CIN | 53% | - | - | CIN 12-0 | Hit |
| TB at LAD | LAD | 52% | - | - | LAD 4-3 | Hit |
| KC at WSH | WSH | 52% | - | - | WSH 7-3 | Hit |
| DET at HOU | HOU | 52% | - | - | DET 9-3 | Miss |
| SD at STL | STL | 51% | - | - | STL 3-0 | Hit |
| PIT at ATH | ATH | 50.4% | - | - | ATH 11-2 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: CHC 63% over COL (hit), PHI 61% over MIA (hit), AZ 54% over LAA (hit).
Season to date
Through June 15: 58-42 (58.0%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.247. Picks at 60% or better went 5-2.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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