MLB Picks for June 14: The Model Went 7-7
By Verdexed Analytics
14 MLB games on June 14. The model went 7-7 on the day. Season to date through June 14: 50-40 (55.6%), Brier 0.250.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at ATH | ATH | 63% | - | - | COL 23-9 | Miss |
| MIA at PIT | PIT | 58% | - | - | MIA 4-2 | Miss |
| LAD at CWS | LAD | 57% | - | - | CWS 6-4 | Miss |
| SEA at WSH | SEA | 53% | - | - | WSH 10-1 | Miss |
| SD at BAL | BAL | 53% | - | - | SD 5-2 | Miss |
| NYY at TOR | NYY | 52% | - | - | NYY 8-3 | Hit |
| HOU at KC | KC | 52% | - | - | KC 4-0 | Hit |
| TEX at BOS | BOS | 52% | - | - | TEX 6-4 | Miss |
| AZ at CIN | AZ | 51% | - | - | AZ 5-3 | Hit |
| STL at MIN | MIN | 51% | - | - | MIN 5-4 | Hit |
| ATL at NYM | NYM | 51% | - | - | NYM 8-1 | Hit |
| TB at LAA | TB | 51% | - | - | TB 8-3 | Hit |
| CHC at SF | SF | 51% | - | - | SF 5-1 | Hit |
| PHI at MIL | PHI | 50% | - | - | MIL 4-0 | Miss |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: ATH 63% over COL (miss), PIT 58% over MIA (miss), LAD 57% over CWS (miss).
Season to date
Through June 14: 50-40 (55.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.250. Picks at 60% or better went 3-2.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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