MLB Picks for June 13: The Model Went 8-7
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on June 13. The model went 8-7 on the day. Season to date through June 13: 43-33 (56.6%), Brier 0.246.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at CWS | LAD | 62% | - | - | LAD 7-1 | Hit |
| COL at ATH | ATH | 58% | - | - | ATH 7-5 | Hit |
| TB at LAA | TB | 56% | - | - | LAA 8-0 | Miss |
| DET at CLE | DET | 54% | - | - | CLE 3-1 | Miss |
| PHI at MIL | MIL | 53% | - | - | PHI 9-8 | Miss |
| SEA at WSH | SEA | 53% | - | - | WSH 8-3 | Miss |
| HOU at KC | KC | 53% | - | - | HOU 8-7 | Miss |
| MIA at PIT | PIT | 52% | - | - | PIT 3-2 | Hit |
| TEX at BOS | BOS | 52% | - | - | BOS 6-3 | Hit |
| NYY at TOR | NYY | 51% | - | - | NYY 3-1 | Hit |
| STL at MIN | MIN | 51% | - | - | STL 9-6 | Miss |
| SD at BAL | BAL | 51% | - | - | SD 9-3 | Miss |
| CHC at SF | CHC | 50.5% | - | - | CHC 6-1 | Hit |
| AZ at CIN | CIN | 50.3% | - | - | CIN 2-1 | Hit |
| ATL at NYM | ATL | 50.2% | - | - | ATL 3-1 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: LAD 62% over CWS (hit), ATH 58% over COL (hit), TB 56% over LAA (miss).
Season to date
Through June 13: 43-33 (56.6%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.246. Picks at 60% or better went 3-1.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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