MLB Picks for June 12: The Model Went 10-5
By Verdexed Analytics
15 MLB games on June 12. The model went 10-5 on the day. Season to date through June 12: 35-26 (57.4%), Brier 0.245.
Every pick below is exactly as it was logged before first pitch that morning: the served probability (the model blended with the market), the model on its own, the market's vig-free number, then the final. Nothing is rewritten after the fact, and a voided pick stays on the board with its reason. The live record, the hit rate by confidence band and every void are on the MLB accuracy page.
The board
| Game | Pick | Verdexed | Model alone | Market | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI at MIL | MIL | 64% | - | - | MIL 6-0 | Hit |
| TB at LAA | TB | 57% | - | - | LAA 4-3 | Miss |
| COL at ATH | ATH | 57% | - | - | ATH 6-4 | Hit |
| SEA at WSH | SEA | 57% | - | - | SEA 10-2 | Hit |
| MIA at PIT | PIT | 54% | - | - | MIA 8-3 | Miss |
| LAD at CWS | LAD | 53% | - | - | CWS 8-2 | Miss |
| TEX at BOS | BOS | 53% | - | - | BOS 10-1 | Hit |
| SD at BAL | BAL | 52% | - | - | BAL 7-3 | Hit |
| DET at CLE | CLE | 52% | - | - | CLE 3-2 | Hit |
| STL at MIN | MIN | 51% | - | - | MIN 9-8 | Hit |
| HOU at KC | KC | 51% | - | - | HOU 10-8 | Miss |
| CHC at SF | CHC | 51% | - | - | CHC 5-1 | Hit |
| NYY at TOR | TOR | 51% | - | - | TOR 8-5 | Hit |
| AZ at CIN | CIN | 51% | - | - | AZ 5-2 | Miss |
| ATL at NYM | NYM | 50.0% | - | - | NYM 7-5 | Hit |
Where the model and the market split
The model and the market were on the same side of every game, within five points.
The firmest calls
The firmest calls: MIL 64% over PHI (hit), TB 57% over LAA (miss), ATH 57% over COL (hit).
Season to date
Through June 12: 35-26 (57.4%) on graded regular-season picks, Brier score 0.245. Picks at 60% or better went 2-1.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
You must be of legal betting age in your jurisdiction and located where sports wagering is legal to bet. Sports betting is not available everywhere; know and follow the laws where you are. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and never chase losses.
If gambling is affecting you or someone you know, help is available. In the US, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537), or visit ncpgambling.org. Please play responsibly.