MLB Awards Check: Crow-Armstrong Passes Ohtani and Misiorowski Runs Away

The awards markets have moved further since the All-Star break than they usually do in a full second half. Pete Crow-Armstrong has overtaken Shohei Ohtani as the National League MVP favorite, sitting around minus-120 with Ohtani near even money. Jacob Misiorowski has stretched his NL Cy Young lead from roughly minus-300 to minus-525 in barely more than a week. And Paul Skenes, the reigning NL Cy Young winner who opened the season as the favorite to repeat, is priced as a longshot after starting 6-3 and then losing nine consecutive starts.

The American League races are where the money still is. Dylan Cease has closed the gap on Cam Schlittler, who had held the AL Cy Young favorite spot essentially wire to wire since May, and the two are now close enough that the market treats it as a two-horse race.

NL MVP: the case for Crow-Armstrong

Crow-Armstrong's ascent is a defense-and-baserunning story that voters have historically undervalued and increasingly do not. Center field defense at an elite level, combined with a full season of everyday at-bats on a Cubs club that has held the top National League Wild Card position comfortably, produces a value profile that survives a slow week at the plate.

Ohtani's counter is the bat. He has been on a tear in August, hitting well over .400 for the month, which is exactly the kind of run that flips a narrative-driven vote back. The complication is what he is not doing. A knee issue has kept him off the mound since early July, which removes the two-way component that has historically decided his MVP cases. An Ohtani who only hits is still an MVP candidate. He is not an automatic one.

The market's near-coin-flip pricing looks correct in shape but slightly wrong in direction. Our model gives Crow-Armstrong a modest edge on cumulative value and gives Ohtani the edge on the trajectory of the final six weeks, which historically matters more to voters than it should. If you are taking a side, Ohtani at plus money is the better price than Crow-Armstrong at minus-120.

NL Cy Young: already over

Misiorowski at minus-525 is not a betting proposition. It is a settled question that has not been announced yet.

The relevant question is whether anyone in the field has value. Chris Sale around plus-700 and Cristopher Sanchez at roughly 11-1 are the only names with a real path, and both paths require Misiorowski to get hurt or to lose the plot over five starts. That is a low-probability event that is nonetheless underpriced at those numbers, because a minus-525 favorite implies roughly an 84 percent chance and no pitcher in mid-August is 84 percent to win a six-week award race.

Skenes is the cautionary tale of the season. He was the preseason favorite, started 6-3, and then lost nine straight starts, which is a stretch that almost never happens to a pitcher of his quality and which will be studied for the rest of the year. Whatever the cause, his Cy Young case is finished, and dynasty managers should note that his 2027 draft price will be the most interesting in the sport.

AL Cy Young: the live race

Cease has taken the favorite role from Schlittler after a stretch of dominance that is hard to overstate. Over his last three starts, opponents have hit .085 against him with 29 strikeouts and six hits, including a seven-inning, two-hit, no-run outing with 10 strikeouts and one walk in August.

Schlittler has not collapsed so much as leveled off, failing to get out of the fifth inning in two of four starts while posting a 3.31 ERA across his last three and a 2.89 ERA across his last five. Those are good numbers. They are not the numbers that hold off a pitcher on a run like Cease's.

This is the one award market where the price and the reality are close enough that a bet is defensible. Our model has Cease as a narrow favorite driven by strikeout rate and by the quality of contact he is allowing, and it flags one structural risk: Cease has historically had one or two blowup starts per season, and a single seven-run outing in September would hand the award back.

The AL MVP race remains the murkiest of the four, in large part because Aaron Judge's injury removed the presumptive favorite from the equation for a long stretch. Judge has been cleared for light activity and has said he expects to play again this season, which raises the possibility of a late run that muddies an already unsettled vote. Betting an AL MVP ticket before Judge's return timeline is clear is premature.

The Verdexed model take

Our award simulations run the remaining schedule forward and weight both cumulative value and the recency bias that voters demonstrably carry.

The two positions our model likes against the current market: Ohtani at plus money for NL MVP, on the strength of an August surge and a voting body that has never penalized him for missing time, and any live longshot in the NL Cy Young field, because minus-525 on a six-week horizon overstates certainty.

The position it does not like: laying a heavy price on the AL Cy Young favorite, whichever of Cease or Schlittler holds that spot on a given day. When two pitchers are separated by this little with six weeks left, the correct action is usually no action.

What to watch

For the NL MVP, watch whether Ohtani returns to the mound. Even a handful of starts down the stretch would restore the two-way argument that has decided his previous cases, and the market would move quickly on the first report of a bullpen session.

For the AL Cy Young, watch the innings. Both Cease and Schlittler are in range of the workload thresholds that voters use as tiebreakers, and the pitcher who takes the ball more often in September will likely win a close vote.

For the AL MVP, watch Judge's rehab progression. A healthy Judge for the final month changes a race that currently has no favorite, and it is the single largest unpriced variable in the awards markets right now.