Both Cy Young Races Are Over and the MVP Markets Are Not Far Behind

With one week left in the regular season, the four major individual award races in baseball have collapsed into one-name markets. New York Yankees right-hander Cam Schlittler and Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Jacob Misiorowski have separated themselves in the Cy Young races to the point that sportsbooks have effectively stopped pricing competition, and the MVP markets are close behind, with Yordan Alvarez leading in the American League and Pete Crow-Armstrong having passed Shohei Ohtani in the National League.

That is unusual. Award races typically tighten in September as voters weigh late runs. This year they hardened.

Schlittler took over the AL when Skubal went down

Schlittler became the AL Cy Young favorite in the spring after Tarik Skubal underwent elbow surgery, and he has not given the lead back. His season has been reported at a sub-2.00 ERA with more than 200 strikeouts across more than 30 starts, numbers that place him among the most valuable pitchers in the league by any framework: traditional, WAR-based or Statcast-driven.

The context makes it more impressive. He did it in the American League East, in a home park that rewards left-handed power, for a team that clinched a playoff spot and will host a wild card series. There is no schedule-quality asterisk available to a voter looking for one.

For fantasy managers in keeper and dynasty formats, the relevant question is sustainability rather than the award. A pitcher running an ERA far below league average in his first full season of this workload is a candidate for regression on volume alone, and the innings jump is the risk factor to price into 2027 draft capital. The stuff is real. The next season's innings are the question.

Misiorowski turned velocity into the strikeout lead

Misiorowski has been the National League's answer, leading the majors in strikeouts with an ERA under 2.00 and an opponents' batting average around .160, while throwing more than a thousand pitches at 100 mph or faster in a single season, reported as the most by any pitcher in the pitch tracking era.

The Brewers won the NL Central again and are in position for a top seed, which removes the other argument a voter might raise. A pitcher leading the league in strikeouts and ERA for a division champion is the cleanest Cy Young case in the sport.

The fantasy note here is about postseason DFS and prop markets rather than the award. A starter with this profile, elite strikeout rate and elite contact suppression, is the single best strikeout prop target in October, and the market has learned that. The over on his strikeout total is rarely a value play. The under on the opposing team's runs and the derivative markets tied to his starts are where the edge has migrated.

Alvarez is chasing a Triple Crown, not just an MVP

Alvarez has been the AL's best hitter by the largest margin of any of these races. He has led the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and walks, and he has been the only qualified hitter in baseball with an on-base percentage above .400.

The Triple Crown is the part worth tracking this week, because it requires leading in average, home runs and RBI simultaneously, and it has happened only a handful of times in the last half century. Reporting entering the final stretch had him on pace for a batting average near .310 with a home run total in the high 40s. Whether the RBI total cooperates depends as much on the Houston lineup around him as on his own at-bats.

The only remaining challenger in the AL MVP market has been Junior Caminero, and a challenger priced at long odds in the last week of September is not a challenger. He is a hedge.

Crow-Armstrong did the thing nobody expected

The National League MVP race was Ohtani's until it was not. Crow-Armstrong's second-half surge moved him past a player chasing his fifth MVP award, and he did it with a combination that voters have historically rewarded: 40-plus home runs, 30-plus stolen bases and elite defense at a premium position.

Center fielders who hit for power and steal bases at that rate are the rarest profile in baseball, and the WAR frameworks that voters increasingly consult reward exactly that combination, because they credit the defensive value that a slash line ignores. Crow-Armstrong's lead in the advanced metrics has been the argument, and the counting stats have caught up to it.

The Verdexed model take

Verdexed's model evaluates award markets by comparing a player's projected finish in the statistical categories voters actually weight against the implied probability in the market price. When those two numbers converge, there is no bet. All four of these races have converged.

That is the actionable conclusion, and it is not a fun one: there is no value left in the 2026 award futures markets. A favorite priced at overwhelming odds requires a catastrophic injury or a historic collapse to lose, and neither event produces a profitable expected value at the price a bettor would have to lay.

Where the model does find value is in derivative markets. Season-long strikeout totals, batting title markets, home run leader markets and the Triple Crown market for Alvarez all price outcomes that depend on a week of games rather than on a season of voting. Those are the markets still moving.

What to do this week

Fantasy managers in championship weeks should treat Schlittler and Misiorowski as automatic starts in any format, with one caveat: contending teams sometimes shorten or skip a start in the final week to set up a postseason rotation, and both pitch for teams that have clinched. Check the probable pitchers before assuming a two-start week.

Alvarez and Crow-Armstrong are the opposite risk. Both play for teams with playoff positions in various states of resolution, and a locked-in team rests its stars. A manager relying on either in a championship matchup should have a plan for a day off.

What is next

The awards are announced in November, and the conversation between now and then will be about historical placement rather than about who wins. Alvarez's Triple Crown chase is the only genuine suspense left, and it resolves in the next six games.

The more useful question for bettors is what these four seasons mean for 2027 futures. Award winners are systematically overpriced in the following season's markets, particularly pitchers coming off career-best workloads. That is where the money will be made, and the time to note it is now, while the numbers are fresh and the winter markets have not opened.