Max Fried Has to Save the Yankees Season Without Aaron Judge in ALDS Game 3
By Verdexed MLB Desk
The New York Yankees are one loss from the end of their season, and the hole is mostly self-inflicted. Tampa Bay beat New York 5-2 in Game 2 of the American League Division Series on Monday night at Tropicana Field, turning four Yankees errors (three of them in the first inning) into a 2-0 series lead. The series now shifts to Yankee Stadium for Game 3 on Wednesday, Oct. 7, at 8 p.m. ET on TBS, where Max Fried faces Rays right-hander Nick Martinez with no margin left.
Teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five series have advanced 89% of the time, according to MLB.com. New York has to win three straight, the last of them back in St. Petersburg, and it has to do it without Aaron Judge, who is not on the ALDS roster.
How Game 2 got away
Cam Schlittler, the presumptive AL Cy Young Award favorite, was undone before he could settle in. Third baseman Ryan McMahon and shortstop George Lombard Jr. were both charged in a messy first inning, and Yandy Diaz scored the opening run on a throwing error. Schlittler needed 19 pitches to get out of the frame. Jazz Chisholm Jr. added a wild throw later in the night, and the four errors produced three unearned runs, per Yahoo Sports.
Ben Rice tied the game with a solo homer, but Tampa Bay broke it open with a four-run fifth built the way the Rays build most of their rallies: doubles, productive groundouts and pressure. Jonathan Aranda scored the go-ahead run on a Liam Hicks groundout, and Richie Palacios capped the inning with a two-run single that chased Schlittler. His final line was 4 1/3 innings, four runs (two earned), six hits and just two strikeouts, his fewest of the season according to MLB.com. Rice homered again in the eighth for the final margin.
Freddy Peralta gave Tampa Bay four innings of one-run, three-hit ball, Ian Seymour covered nine outs in relief and Bryan Baker recorded the final three for the save in front of a sellout crowd of 40,226. Rays manager Kevin Cash described the formula afterward as constant pressure and long at-bats, and two games in, the Yankees have had no answer for it.
The offense is the real crisis
The errors will dominate the New York tabloids, but the more troubling number is on the other side. The Yankees managed one hit in Game 1, when Drew Rasmussen took a no-hitter into the eighth inning, struck out 10 and beat Gerrit Cole 1-0 on a Jonathan Aranda homer. They added four hits and two walks against four Rays pitchers in Game 2. Through 18 innings the Yankees have scored two runs, and both came on Rice solo homers.
Judge is the missing piece. He suffered a moderate strain of the soleus muscle in his right calf on Sept. 16 against the Twins, received a platelet-poor plasma injection in late September and was left off the 26-man ALDS roster. Manager Aaron Boone said the club wanted Judge to use this week to keep hitting so a usable version of him could return, and he remains eligible to be added for the ALCS only if New York advances, per MLB.com. The Yankees carried 11 pitchers for this round and kept Giancarlo Stanton, Rice and Paul Goldschmidt for the designated hitter and corner at-bats.
Game 3 pitching matchup
| Pitcher | Team | 2026 record | 2026 ERA | Relevant split |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | Yankees | 5-5 | 2.80 | 5-1, 1.81 ERA in 7 career starts vs. Tampa Bay |
| Nick Martinez | Rays | 15-6 | 3.10 | 7-3, 2.38 ERA in 16 road starts |
Fried is the best possible pitcher New York could send out with its season on the line, at least on paper. He posted a 2.80 ERA with 104 strikeouts over 20 starts and 112 2/3 innings in the regular season, then held Boston to one run on three hits over six innings with six strikeouts in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. His history against this opponent is the strongest argument for the Yankees: a 5-1 record and 1.81 ERA in seven career starts against Tampa Bay, including 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA in three starts in 2025.
Martinez is a less obvious choice than his numbers suggest. The veteran went 15-6 with a 3.10 ERA, but the Tampa Bay Times reported that the Rays picked him in part because he was far better away from Tropicana Field: 7-3 with a 2.38 ERA in 16 road starts compared with 8-3 and a 3.90 ERA at home. Wednesday will be the ninth postseason appearance of his career and his first start. Expect a short leash from Cash, with a rested bullpen that has thrown well in both games behind him.
If the Yankees force a Game 4 on Thursday, Oct. 8, Carlos Rodon is lined up to start. Rodon has worked out of the bullpen this postseason and has not pitched since Sept. 22, according to MLB.com. A Game 5, if needed, would be Saturday, Oct. 10, back in Tampa Bay.
Betting angle
The futures market has priced the Yankees as a long shot. According to SI Betting, New York's World Series price drifted from +750 to +1600 after Game 2, while Tampa Bay moved to +380, third behind the Dodgers (+230) and Brewers (+310). Before the series began, the market had the Yankees as narrow favorites to advance, so the move reflects two games of results more than any change in the talent gap.
Game 3 is the spot where that gap matters most. Fried at home against a pitcher making his first career postseason start is the most favorable single-game setup the Yankees will get in this series, and the moneyline will reflect it. The trap is overrating the matchup: the Yankees' lineup has not hit anyone yet, and Martinez's road profile is genuinely strong. A bettor who believes in a New York rebound gets a better price backing the Yankees on a game-by-game basis than chasing the series price, because a Game 3 win only buys the right to face Rasmussen or Peralta again later in the series.
The total is worth a look in the other direction. Both lineups have been held in check (Tampa Bay has scored six runs in two games, three of them unearned), Fried has owned this lineup historically, and the Rays bullpen has been sharp in both games. Low-scoring outcomes have defined this series, and there is little in the Game 3 matchup to suggest that changes.
DFS and props angle
Fried is the clearest pitching anchor of Wednesday's ALDS action. He struck out 104 batters in 112 2/3 innings, a solid but not elite rate, so outs recorded and a win are steadier ways to back him than a strikeout over. Against a Rays lineup that works counts and fouls off pitches by design, his pitch count is the main risk to a deep outing.
On the hitting side, Rice is the only Yankee who has done damage, with two homers in Game 2, and he hits from the left side against a right-handed starter. Stanton, Chisholm and Austin Wells are the other bats with the power to flip a game against Martinez, but none has shown it yet in this series. For Tampa Bay, Aranda has scored in both games and homered in Game 1, and Palacios delivered the big hit in Game 2. Stacking against Fried is a hard sell given his record against this lineup.
What's next
Wednesday night is binary for New York: win behind Fried and hand the ball to Rodon on Thursday, or watch Tampa Bay celebrate at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees need their defense to look like the group Chisholm defended after Game 2 and need someone besides Rice to hit. The Rays need one more game played on their terms. For a full slate of matchups, see the model's card at /mlb/predictions before first pitch.