Gerrit Cole Faces Drew Rasmussen in ALDS Game 1 and the Rays Are Favored at Tropicana Field
By Verdexed MLB Desk
Gerrit Cole gets the ball for the Yankees in Game 1 of the American League Division Series on Saturday night at a sold-out Tropicana Field, and he draws the toughest possible assignment: Drew Rasmussen, the Rays right-hander who has owned New York for most of his career. First pitch is set for 6:30 p.m. ET on TBS and truTV, and the market has Tampa Bay as the Game 1 favorite even though the Yankees are a slight favorite to win the best-of-five series. Hanging over all of it is Aaron Judge, whose right calf left the Yankees facing a 10 a.m. ET Saturday deadline to file their 26-man roster.
The matchup: Cole's comeback year against a Rays ace
Cole is 36 and in his first season back from the Tommy John surgery he had in March 2025. He went 10-9 with a 3.61 ERA over 22 starts, striking out 131 in 127 innings, per MLB.com and the Associated Press. That is a good pitcher, not the 2023 Cy Young version, and the Yankees chose him over Carlos Rodon for the opener. Manager Aaron Boone has indicated Rodon will likely start Game 3 or Game 4, and Cam Schlittler, who finished the regular season with a 1.95 ERA, is lined up for Game 2.
Cole's track record against this specific lineup is encouraging. He made three regular-season starts against Tampa Bay, logging a 2.50 ERA with 16 strikeouts and seven walks across 18 innings, per RotoWire. The walk count is the yellow flag: seven free passes in 18 frames is a higher rate than Cole would want in a game where one crooked inning can decide a short series.
Rasmussen is the reason the Rays are favored. He went 16-5 with a 2.67 ERA, which ranked seventh among qualified starters, and multiple outlets list him with 174 strikeouts in 172 innings and a 0.91 WHIP. Against the Yankees, the numbers get even louder: a 1.81 career ERA over 11 appearances (10 starts), with 70 strikeouts against 13 walks in 59.2 innings. In four 2026 starts against New York he posted a 2.86 ERA with 26 strikeouts and four walks over 22 innings, and in his most recent outing, on Sept. 22, he struck out 11 in a 6-1 Rays win over the Yankees.
| Pitcher | 2026 record | 2026 ERA | Strikeouts / IP | Vs. opponent (2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerrit Cole (NYY) | 10-9 | 3.61 | 131 / 127 | 2.50 ERA, 16 K, 7 BB in 18 IP |
| Drew Rasmussen (TB) | 16-5 | 2.67 | 174 / 172 | 2.86 ERA, 26 K, 4 BB in 22 IP |
The Aaron Judge question
Judge has not played since straining the soleus muscle in his right calf on Sept. 16, a strain described as moderate. He was left off the Wild Card roster, and the Yankees swept the Red Sox anyway, outscoring Boston 18-2 in two games at Yankee Stadium. Through Friday, Boone would only call Judge's status for the Division Series to be determined, per ESPN and the Tampa Bay Times.
The progress is real but incomplete. Judge took three live at-bat sessions during the week, including one at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, then worked out at the team's minor league complex in Tampa on Friday morning before joining the afternoon workout at Tropicana Field. He has done outfield running but had not run the bases as of Friday, which is the usual tell that a hitter is not ready for game action. Boone also said the Tropicana Field turf would factor into the call, and ESPN reported a split inside the organization: some want him active now, others would rather wait a week and protect him for a possible ALCS.
Without Judge, Ben Rice has handled designated hitter duties and Paul Goldschmidt has platooned at first base with Luis Garcia. Readers should confirm the filed roster before lineups lock. If Judge is active, the most likely early usage is as a designated hitter or bench bat rather than a full-time right fielder on turf.
DFS and player props
Rasmussen is the clear pitcher play in any Game 1 showdown format. His strikeout rate against the Yankees (70 strikeouts in 59.2 career innings) is better than a strikeout per inning, and his 2026 walk count against them was tiny. The caveat is length: playoff managers hook starters early, and the Rays are famously quick with the bullpen. A strikeout over is more attractive than an outs-recorded over for that reason.
Cole is the riskier side. His strikeout rate this year (131 in 127 innings) supports a solid ceiling, but the walks against Tampa Bay and a sub-elite ERA mean his ratios carry more variance. In single-game DFS, pairing Rasmussen with Rays bats is the logical correlation; Yandy Diaz has been a popular total-bases target in early prop coverage.
On the Yankees side, a Rasmussen start limits stacking appeal. Fade a full New York stack at shortstop and second base in showdown builds and keep exposure to the power bats who can change the game with one swing: Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice are the logical one-off plays against a right-hander.
Betting angle
The series price is close to a pick'em. Fox Sports listed the Yankees at -120 and the Rays at +100 to win the series, while other books had it at roughly -110 each way or the Yankees at -117. For Game 1, the Rays are favored at every major book in Saturday odds coverage, from -133 at FanDuel to -141 at Fanatics, with the Yankees available at +116 at BetRivers. The total sits between 6.5 and 7.
That pricing tells a coherent story. The market rates the Yankees as the slightly better team over five games (Schlittler and a deeper rotation behind Cole help), but it respects Rasmussen enough to make Tampa Bay a clear home favorite in the opener. The teams split their regular-season meetings almost evenly, with Tampa Bay taking the season series 7-6.
| Market | Yankees | Rays |
|---|---|---|
| Series price (Fox Sports) | -120 | +100 |
| Game 1 moneyline range | +116 (BetRivers) | -133 to -141 |
| Game 1 total | 6.5 to 7 | 6.5 to 7 |
The Verdexed angle
The inputs that matter most for Game 1 are the starter gap, the Judge decision and bullpen leverage after Cole and Rasmussen exit. A Judge activation would nudge the Yankees' lineup quality for the series more than for Game 1, since even an active Judge is unlikely to log nine innings in the field on turf right away. For the model's view of the opener and the rest of the series, see /mlb/predictions and the daily board at /blog/mlb-picks-2026-10-03.
For fantasy playoff contests that run through October, Rasmussen and Schlittler are the arms worth prioritizing from this series. Cole is a viable SP2 in multi-round formats, but his walk rate against Tampa Bay keeps him a tier below.
What's next
Game 2 is Monday, Oct. 5 at 8 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field, with Schlittler expected to start for New York. The Rays have not set the rest of their rotation; Nick Martinez and Shane McClanahan are among the options. The series shifts to Yankee Stadium for Game 3 on Wednesday, Oct. 7, where Rodon or Max Fried could get the ball. The Judge roster decision will also carry forward: if he is left off for this round, the next chance to add him is the ALCS roster.