Cam Schlittler and Jacob Misiorowski Have Closed Both Cy Young Markets

Both Cy Young races are effectively over as betting markets, with Cam Schlittler priced past 95 percent in the American League and Jacob Misiorowski at similarly prohibitive odds in the National League. Several books have stopped posting an AL number entirely, which is the clearest possible statement that the market considers the question settled.

That is unusual with two weeks still to play. Award markets typically stay live into the final week because a voter-decided outcome has more variance than a results-decided one. When the prices collapse this early, it means the statistical gap is large enough that no plausible finish changes the answer.

Schlittler's case

The Yankees right-hander has been the most dominant pitcher in the American League down the stretch. He has allowed one run or fewer in seven consecutive starts and in eight of his last ten, and he carries an ERA in the mid-1.90s with a strikeout total among the league leaders.

A run like that in September is exactly what award voters remember, and it is also what closes a market. Consistency at that level removes the mechanism by which a challenger normally catches up, which is a late collapse from the leader. Schlittler has not given anyone the opening.

Dylan Cease is the only name still mentioned in the conversation, and the mention is nominal rather than competitive. Absent an injury or a genuinely disastrous final two starts from Schlittler, the award is decided.

Misiorowski's case

The National League race was tighter for most of the season, with Cristopher Sanchez of the Phillies holding the lead through the summer before Misiorowski passed him on the strength of his recent work. The Brewers right-hander now leads the majors in ERA, WHIP, expected ERA and expected FIP, which is as complete a statistical sweep as a pitcher can assemble.

The underlying metrics matter here because they close the argument that his results are park-aided or defense-aided. When a pitcher leads in both the results-based and the process-based categories simultaneously, there is no counterargument left.

He is also the most watchable pitcher in baseball. Misiorowski holds the record for the fastest pitch thrown by a starter in major league history at 105.5 miles per hour, and he set a record earlier this season for the most pitches of 100 miles per hour or faster in a single game, in a May outing against St. Louis. Velocity does not win awards on its own, but it does keep a pitcher in the national conversation in a way that a soft-tossing equivalent would not be.

The betting angle

There is no value on either favorite. Laying prices past 95 percent to win an award decided by a vote is a poor use of capital regardless of how confident the outcome feels, because the downside is total and the upside is a few percent.

The value, if any exists, is in the derivative markets. Season-long strikeout props, final ERA markets and the various "will he finish under X" totals are still live and are priced off performance rather than off voter behavior. A pitcher whose team has already clinched is a pitcher whose final two starts may be abbreviated, which is the main risk to any counting-stat prop.

Milwaukee has clinched the NL Central, which makes Misiorowski's remaining workload a genuine question. A team with a bye locked up has every incentive to limit its ace's innings and line him up for the division series rather than the regular season finale. Anyone holding an over on his season strikeout total should be watching Milwaukee's rotation announcements closely.

The Verdexed model take

Our model separates award probability from performance projection, because the two diverge in exactly this situation. The performance projection for both pitchers over the final two weeks is excellent. The award probability is already at a ceiling, which means additional performance adds nothing to the price.

Where the model finds an edge is in next season's markets rather than this season's. Pitchers who win a Cy Young in a dominant season are systematically overpriced in the following year's futures, because the market extrapolates a peak rather than a baseline. Both of these pitchers will open next season at prices that assume a repeat, and repeats are rare.

For fantasy managers in keeper and dynasty formats, that is the same warning in a different language. The acquisition cost for either pitcher this offseason will be set by this season's outcome, and the realistic projection for a 24-year-old power arm with this workload is very good rather than historic.

Fantasy fallout

In head-to-head leagues still running, both pitchers are automatic starts in any remaining outing, with the caveat that a clinched team may pull a starter early. Check the pregame reporting on pitch count plans before locking a lineup around either of them in the final week.

In dynasty leagues, neither is a sell, but both are candidates for a price check. A pitcher coming off a Cy Young season commands a return that a pitcher coming off an excellent but unheralded season does not, and the gap between those two prices is the largest arbitrage available in a dynasty trade market this winter.

What a closed market tells you

There is a broader lesson here for anyone who bets award futures. Both of these prices were available at meaningful odds in the spring, and neither pitcher was the preseason favorite in his league. The money in award markets is made in March and April, when the field is wide and the pricing reflects reputation rather than performance.

By mid-September, the market has all the information and the prices reflect it. That is why the correct posture on a closed award market is to stop looking at it and start looking at the next one. The 2027 futures will post this winter, and they will be priced on 2026 results.

The pitchers who beat those prices next year are the ones who were excellent in 2026 without winning anything. Cease in the American League and Sanchez in the National League both fall into that category, and both will open next season at longer prices than their underlying performance justifies precisely because someone else took the trophy.