Cam Schlittler and Gavin Williams Try to Even Both ALDS Series in Game 2

Both American League Division Series resume Monday with the same storyline: the team that was favored before the round is down 1-0 and now needs a road split or a home win to avoid a two-game hole. The White Sox will open Game 2 in Cleveland with left-hander Anthony Kay before handing the bulk of the innings to Sean Burke, and the Yankees send Cam Schlittler to Tropicana Field to face Freddy Peralta.

Game 2 in Cleveland starts at 5 p.m. ET on TBS, followed by Yankees at Rays at 8 p.m. ET. Both series then shift on Wednesday, Oct. 7, with Game 3s at Rate Field in Chicago and at Yankee Stadium. Here is how the matchups set up, what has changed since Saturday, and where the betting and DFS value sits.

White Sox at Guardians: Kay opens, Burke follows

Chicago is sticking with the formula that won Game 1. After Hagen Smith opened and closer Grant Taylor worked four scoreless innings for the save Saturday, manager Will Venable will start Kay and then turn to Burke as a bulk reliever, per MLB.com. Burke has been Chicago's best starter this season and has owned Cleveland: he is 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA over three appearances (two starts) against the Guardians, with 21 strikeouts and three walks in 17 1/3 innings.

The key bullpen question has an answer. MLB.com reported that Taylor (42 pitches Saturday) and Smith (51 pitches) are both available Monday after the Sunday off-day, though Venable is unlikely to ask for another four-inning effort. Cleveland's relief corps is fully rested.

Gavin Williams starts for the Guardians. He led the AL with 248 strikeouts and posted a 3.76 ERA, but rust is a legitimate concern: his last outing was a 3 1/3-inning start on Sept. 25, and he threw a 70-pitch simulated game Wednesday to stay sharp. Covers noted that Williams had a 5.03 ERA this season when pitching on extra rest. Cleveland also has not named its Game 3 starter. Manager Stephen Vogt said the decision will play out based on how the series goes, with Tanner Bibee and Joey Cantillo among the rotation options and Daniel Espino a possible opener, per MLB.com. Slade Cecconi was left off the ALDS roster.

Yankees at Rays: Schlittler vs. Peralta

The Yankees had one hit in Game 1 against Drew Rasmussen and now face the AL Pitcher of the Month for September. Peralta went 5-0 with a 0.79 ERA over his last six starts and has a 1.69 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in four home starts for Tampa Bay. Schlittler counters with a 1.95 regular-season ERA and is widely viewed as the AL Cy Young front-runner.

Aaron Judge is still not on the roster. His strained right calf did not heal in time for the ALDS, though manager Aaron Boone said it was very close and that Judge was scheduled to run and possibly take live batting practice Monday. He is eligible to be added for the ALCS if New York advances, which makes this series a bridge the Yankees have to cross without him.

Boone has confirmed a four-man rotation. Carlos Rodon and Max Fried will start Games 3 and 4 at Yankee Stadium, though the order has not been announced. Tampa Bay has not named its Game 3 starter.

Betting angle

The Yankees game has the clearest market signal. New York is a road favorite of about -131 with the Rays near +109, and the total sits at 6.5, per FanDuel Research. That price says the market trusts Schlittler more than it fears a Yankees lineup that just produced one hit. The Verdexed read: Schlittler should keep this game tight, but backing New York at a road favorite price requires believing an offense without Judge can do more against Peralta than it did against Rasmussen. The Rays at plus money are the value side for bettors who weigh September form over the full season, and the under is the more natural play for anyone expecting two aces to deliver.

In Cleveland, the Guardians opened around -153 and moved toward -160, with the White Sox drifting from +128 to +134, per Covers. That is a sign money is landing on Cleveland at home, which is understandable after a loss. The case for Chicago is Burke's record against this lineup and a bullpen that has not trailed this postseason. The case against is that Williams is a true strikeout pitcher and Chicago has to string together outs from multiple relievers again. If you like the White Sox, the plus price is meaningful; if you lean Cleveland, consider the first five innings, which isolates Williams against Kay and the early part of Burke's outing.

On the futures board, SI's updated World Series odds list the Rays at +550 and the Yankees at +750, with the White Sox at +1100 and the Guardians at +1800. A Yankees loss Monday would push New York's number well past where it sits now.

DFS and fantasy angles for Monday

Cam Schlittler and Freddy Peralta are the anchor pitchers on a two-game slate. With a 6.5 total, strikeout props and outs-recorded props carry more value than wins. Peralta at home against a Judge-less lineup is the strongest strikeout play.

Gavin Williams is the highest strikeout ceiling of the four pitchers involved, but the rust and extra-rest splits lower his floor. Use him in tournaments rather than cash games.

Sean Burke is not a starter on paper, which can hide him in DFS pricing. If your format allows relievers, his expected bulk innings and history against Cleveland make him a sneaky value.

At the plate, Munetaka Murakami remains the White Sox bat to own after his 440-foot Game 1 homer, and Colson Montgomery drove in a run Saturday. For the Yankees, Austin Wells had their only hit in Game 1; New York stacks are a contrarian play against Peralta. Jonathan Aranda, whose homer won Game 1, faces a right-hander again in Schlittler.

What's next

After Monday, both series take Tuesday off and resume Wednesday in Chicago and New York. Watch for the Guardians' Game 3 decision, the Rays' Game 3 announcement and Boone's order of Rodon and Fried. A pair of road wins Monday would leave Chicago and Tampa Bay one win from the ALCS. For the model's view of both Game 2s, see /mlb/predictions.