Best Bets for Wednesday, October 7: COL 60%, NYY 60% and 5 More Picks Across the MLB and NHL
By Verdexed Analytics
7 picks to win on the Model Cards for Wednesday, October 7, across the MLB and NHL, plus 10 props. The firmest call is Colorado Avalanche at 60% (-192). Yesterday's cards: MLB 1-1, NHL 3-1. Every card posts at 11 AM ET and stays live until its games start: each leg locks at its own first pitch or puck drop at the line then on offer, and graded in public on the Model Cards page; nothing is edited after the fact.
Today's card
| Game | Call | Pick | Our number | Price | Market | Edge | League | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL at WPG | Play | COL | 60% | -192 | 63% | -3 | NHL | shot share (Corsi) +7.7, goal margin +4.6 |
| TB at NYY | Play | NYY | 60% | -167 | 60% | 0 | MLB | venue +2.7, home/road split +0.9 |
| PIT at WSH | Lean | WSH | 58% | -162 | 59% | -2 | NHL | rest +3.4, head to head +1.4 |
| LAD at ATL | Lean | LAD | 57% | -155 | 58% | -1 | MLB | travel +1.5, clutch hitting +1.3 |
| CLE at CWS | Lean | CWS | 53% | -127 | 53% | -1 | MLB | starting pitchers +1.2, home/road split +1.0 |
| EDM at ANA | Lean | EDM | 52% | -135 | 55% | -3 | NHL | venue +5.1, power play +4.8 |
| MIL at SD | Lean | SD | 51% | -112 | 51% | 0 | MLB | venue +2.5, run margin +1.1 |
Lock is 65% or better on our number, Play 58% or better, Lean anything the card still takes as the most likely winner. Price is the pick's moneyline when the card froze; Market is the vig-free probability that price implies; Edge is our number minus the market's, in points. The leagues are listed together here but never played together: each card, each ticket and each ledger is one league.
The MLB totals model leans OVER on MIL at SD: it makes the game 8.9 runs against a posted 7.5.
Why each pick
Colorado Avalanche over Winnipeg Jets, 60%, -192. Play on the NHL card. What drives it: shot share (Corsi) (+7.7 points), goal margin (+4.6 points), rest (+3.3 points). The case against is motivation (-4.4 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have COL as the more likely winner. The line COL -1.5, total 6.5. COL starter: Scott Wedgewood (projected). COL out: Trent Miner, Georgii Merkulov, Logan O'Connor. WPG starter: Stuart Skinner (projected). WPG out: Connor Hellebuyck, Elias Salomonsson, Walker Duehr.
New York Yankees over Tampa Bay Rays, 60%, -167. Play on the MLB card. What drives it: venue (+2.7 points), home/road split (+0.9 points), clutch hitting (+0.8 points). The case against is motivation (-0.5 points). The line NYY -1.5, total 7. TB out: Edwin Uceta, Jonathan Heasley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane McClanahan, Gavin Lux. NYY out: Clarke Schmidt, Fernando Cruz, Kervin Castro, Aaron Judge.
Washington Capitals over Pittsburgh Penguins, 58%, -162. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: rest (+3.4 points), head to head (+1.4 points), home/road split (+1.1 points). The case against is goal margin (-3.4 points). The line WSH -1.5, total 6.5. PIT starter: Arturs Silovs (likely). PIT out: Ryan Graves, Bryan Rust, Justin Brazeau. WSH starter: Logan Thompson. WSH out: Matt Roy, Rasmus Sandin.
Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta Braves, 57%, -155. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: travel (+1.5 points), clutch hitting (+1.3 points), streak (+1.3 points). The case against is venue (-3.1 points). The line LAD -1.5, total 7.5. LAD out: Ben Casparius, Blake Treinen, Brusdar Graterol, Eric Lauer, Gavin Stone. ATL out: Bryce Elder, Hurston Waldrep, Joey Wentz, Spencer Schwellenbach, Spencer Strider.
Chicago White Sox over Cleveland Guardians, 53%, -127. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: starting pitchers (+1.2 points), home/road split (+1.0 points), clutch hitting (+0.7 points). The case against is venue (-5.1 points). The line CWS -1.5, total 8. CLE out: Andrew Walters, Colin Holderman, Rhys Hoskins. CWS out: Jordan Leasure, Ky Bush, Luis Castillo, Mike Vasil, Prelander Berroa.
Edmonton Oilers over Anaheim Ducks, 52%, -135. Lean on the NHL card. What drives it: venue (+5.1 points), power play (+4.8 points), rest (+1.4 points). The case against is goalies (-3.6 points). The market is 3 points firmer on it than we are; we still have EDM as the more likely winner. The line EDM -1.5, total 6.5. EDM starter: Devon Levi. EDM out: Frederik Andersen, Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie, Mattias Janmark, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. ANA starter: Lukas Dostal (projected). ANA out: Drew Helleson, Ian Moore, Troy Terry.
San Diego Padres over Milwaukee Brewers, 51%, -112. Lean on the MLB card. What drives it: venue (+2.5 points), run margin (+1.1 points), home/road split (+0.7 points). The case against is clutch hitting (-2.3 points). The line SD -1.5, total 7.5. MIL out: Angel Zerpa, Brandon Woodruff, Brian Fitzpatrick, Grant Anderson, Quinn Priester. SD out: Bryan Hoeing, Casey Mize, Jeremiah Estrada, Lucas Giolito, Luis Rengifo.
The props card
| Player | Call | Team | Game | Prop | Our projection | Our probability | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walker Buehler | Lock | SD | MIL at SD | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 4 | 87% | MLB |
| Max Fried | Lock | NYY | TB at NYY | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 5.3 | 84% | MLB |
| Evgeni Malkin | Lock | PIT | PIT at WSH | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 2.4 | 82% | NHL |
| Nick Martinez | Play | TB | TB at NYY | Over 2.5 strikeouts | 3.6 | 80% | MLB |
| Kyle Connor | Play | WPG | COL at WPG | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 5.3 | 80% | NHL |
| Tyler Mahle | Play | ATL | LAD at ATL | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 4.7 | 75% | MLB |
| Nathan MacKinnon | Play | COL | COL at WPG | Over 3.5 shots on goal | 4.6 | 70% | NHL |
| Connor McDavid | Lean | EDM | EDM at ANA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.3 | 70% | NHL |
| Tyler Glasnow | Lean | LAD | LAD at ATL | Over 6.5 strikeouts | 8.1 | 68% | MLB |
| Evan Bouchard | Lean | EDM | EDM at ANA | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 3.1 | 65% | NHL |
Each prop is the half-point line where our distribution for the player gives the over at least 65%; Lock is 80% or better, Play 70% or better. Props carry no market price here, so take a leg at -120 or better. Every one is graded on the box score.
The tickets
| League | Ticket | Legs | Pays | Our probability | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | Games | NYY; LAD; CWS; SD | +790 | 9% | +992 |
| MLB | Props | Walker Buehler over 2.5 strikeouts; Max Fried over 3.5 strikeouts; Nick Martinez over 2.5 strikeouts; Tyler Mahle over 3.5 strikeouts; Tyler Glasnow over 6.5 strikeouts | +233 (fair) | 30% | +233 |
| MLB | Best of both | NYY; LAD; CWS; Walker Buehler over 2.5 strikeouts; Max Fried over 3.5 strikeouts; Nick Martinez over 2.5 strikeouts | +699 | 11% | +846 |
| NHL | Games | COL; WSH; EDM | +328 | 18% | +458 |
| NHL | Props | Evgeni Malkin over 1.5 shots on goal; Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 3.5 shots on goal; Connor McDavid over 2.5 shots on goal; Evan Bouchard over 2.5 shots on goal | +373 (fair) | 21% | +373 |
| NHL | Best of both | COL; WSH; EDM; Evgeni Malkin over 1.5 shots on goal; Kyle Connor over 3.5 shots on goal; Nathan MacKinnon over 3.5 shots on goal | +827 | 8% | +1108 |
Three tickets per league: the whole game card as one parlay at its locked lines, the props card at fair odds (props have no posted price), and the best of both (the top three picks with the top three props). Our probability is the product of the legs; Fair is the price that probability deserves. Every ticket is graded as its legs resolve.
Injuries that move the number
Who is out is priced, not counted: every absent skater, hitter and skill player is valued by his own production above the next man up, discounted for absences the team has already been playing through. These are the lines that clear 0.4 points on today's slate.
| Game | League | Who is out | Effect |
|---|---|---|---|
| EDM at ANA | NHL | ANA without Terry, Moore; EDM without Hyman, Savoie | 0.8 pts against EDM |
| PIT at WSH | NHL | WSH without Sandin; PIT without Rust | 0.5 pts toward WSH |
Schedule spots
Back to backs, heavy weeks and long trips are in the model as features, not as hunches. Two seasons of results: NHL teams on the second of a back to back win 43.7% against 51.1% overall.
| Team | League | Spot | Game | Our number |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | NHL | 2.2K km since the last game | EDM at ANA | EDM 52% (our pick) |
The NFL card for Thursday, October 8 is already posted: DAL 75% (-470).
How yesterday's cards landed (Oct 6)
MLB: 1-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD at ATL | ATL | 51% | -112 | Miss |
| MIL at SD | SD | 55% | -143 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 71% | 10 | Hit |
| Chris Sale | Over 5.5 strikeouts | 73% | 7 | Hit |
| Nick Pivetta | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 76% | 4 | Hit |
| Dustin May | Over 3.5 strikeouts | 72% | 3 | Miss |
Tickets: the games parlay (+222) missed; the props parlay (+256) missed; the best-of-both ticket (+714) missed.
NHL: 3-1
| Game | Pick | Our number | Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL at CHI | STL | 57% | -148 | Miss |
| VGK at SEA | VGK | 57% | -175 | Hit |
| NSH at TOR | TOR | 54% | -155 | Hit |
| NYI at NYR | NYR | 53% | -162 | Hit |
| Player | Prop | Our probability | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Eichel | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 2 | Hit |
| Dylan Larkin | Over 1.5 shots on goal | 93% | 4 | Hit |
| Nick Schmaltz | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 77% | 4 | Hit |
| Steven Stamkos | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 72% | 3 | Hit |
| Sebastian Aho | Over 2.5 shots on goal | 72% | 3 | Hit |
Tickets: the games parlay (+601) missed; the props parlay (+188) hit; the best-of-both ticket (+552) missed.
The record
| League | Cards | Legs | Units | ROI | Props | Game parlays |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 3 since Oct 1 | 6-3 | -0.08 u | -0.9% | 6-3 (67%) | 0-1 |
| MLB | 6 since Sep 30 | 8-7 | -1.62 u | -10.8% | 16-8 (67%) | 0-5 |
| NHL | 7 since Sep 30 | 19-8 | +3.71 u | +13.8% | 26-8 (76%) | 2-5 |
Units are a flat one unit on every game leg at the price locked at its game's start; the ledgers are per league and are never added together. The live ledgers, every past card and every graded ticket are on the Model Cards page; the model's full pick record by league, with every voided pick and its reason, is on the record page.
Responsible play
This is model output, not betting advice. Verdexed publishes its model's probabilities and edges for informational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing here is a recommendation to place a wager, and no outcome is guaranteed, even the model's highest-confidence picks lose regularly.
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